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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Really surprised we aren't in a D2 or D3 slight.

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Waiting on the new 00z NAM... but 18z NAM soundings were pretty nice for 21z and 00z tomorrow 

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Just now, yoda said:

Waiting on the new 00z NAM... but 18z NAM soundings were pretty nice for 21z and 00z tomorrow 

Psssst... We abscond the 18z hrdps.

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Well then, the 03z MON sounding at KIAD is certainly fun to look at from the 00z NAM

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10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Really surprised we aren't in a D2 or D3 slight.

          Seems pretty likely that we'll wake up Sunday morning to a slight risk.     Good instability + good deep layer shear + likely initiation  puts us in the game for sure.      

           Waking up Sunday to a SLGT for Monday seems quite plausible too. 

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Interesting Day 1 and 2 updates from SPC... day 1 - today - is 2/15/5 with talk of cellular activity producing hail and supercell possible

Tomorrow (Monday) talks about a potential bow complex coming through in the afternoon

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A cold front will approach the area from the north today. The
front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly
stationary across the area through the middle of next week. It
may finally shift southeast of the region by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very warm and humid air mass will be in place today coupled
with a lee-side trof and weak 500 mb wave will aid in t-storm
development this afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively
strong with 40kt at 500mb contributing to 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk
shear. A few severe t- storms are expected late this afternoon
through late this evening. Northern and central Maryland appears
to be at greatest risk of severe thunderstorms with t-storm
coverage decreasing markedly south of I-66. Damaging wind gusts
appear to be the biggest threat given the moderately strong flow
aloft and fast storm motions (~ 30kt). The severe wx threat
should wane after 10PM or so, but risk of t- storms will likely
persist well into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday still appears as it will be the most active day this
week with a slow moving front nearby and ripples of upper level
energy aiding in t-storm formation. Shear and storm motions will
be weaker suggesting an increased flash flood threat especially
given mid- level flow becoming parallel to sfc front which will
also favor training. CAPE values, on the other hand, are
expected to be much higher than on Sunday, which also support a
severe wx and flash flood threat. A flash flood watch may be
issued for some areas at this time tomorrow once confidence in
location of t-storms increases. Simulated satellite imagery from
various global models indicate convection will be more
widespread and intense than today.

 

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Some excerpts from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly on the potential for late today into the evening-

A third perturbation arrives late today, and this is the one that should produce stronger convection. There are two main forecast questions associated with this perturbation. Where will it track, and how will the downstream environment destabilize? Regarding the first question, the 00z NAM tracks it along the Mason-Dixon Line. The 00z GFS tracks it across northern Virginia eastward to Delmarva. The 00z ECMWF is much farther north (generally through PA/NJ). These differences are critical because convection will likely develop in close proximity to this vort max. Hi-res models are similarly variable, with HRRR runs developing strong convection anywhere from eastern PA/central NJ to central/southern MD eastward through Delmarva.

Where the environment remains relatively unperturbed by the predecessor precipitation/clouds, BUFKIT soundings show MLCAPE approaching 1000- 1500 J/kg this afternoon in an adequately sheared (30-35 kts deep- layer bulk wind difference) environment. Low-level helicity will also improve through the day, with hodographs exhibiting modest curvature (0-3 km SRH approaching 150 J/kg by evening). Where convection develops, mixed convective modes may occur initially with all types of severe possible, though convection-allowing guidance is tending to develop a mesoscale convective system rather quickly. Timing of the stronger storms looks to be after 3 pm and may peak during the evening hours based on the latest HRRR/NAM Nest simulations.

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16 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Are you bullish on this threat window? 

Ask me each day, it's highly conditional on debris clouds.

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For the record, I prefer tomorrow for more widespread flooding and severe activity.

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Could be an ENH kind of day tomorrow if we arent socked in with debris clouds.

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Wow look at NAM nest for tomorrow PM

NAMNSTMA_prec_radar_043.png

Nudge that south a bit and I’ll take it.

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Wasn't expecting overcast and light rain at mid-day.  Does this impeded severe chances for later today?  I am coming out from under my weather blocking shield and going to Gaithersburg for dinner, and am hoping to see a thunderstorm.

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43 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Alright sun coming back out and it's 77/66.  Need to build up come instability.

Not looking good for today.  

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Doubt they will even get here... but might want to watch the storms in W PA moving SE... have had occasional TW's with them

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53 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looks like a night-time thunderstorm event on the way

Your thinking that line out in Western PA. keeps together and drops South and East as the evening progresses ?  

Then I believe the general idea is it stalls,  and depending where it stalls you then get that flood threat tomorrow late day and evening.  As mentioned by Mount Holly.

The system later in the week is progged to be a strong one,  the last in the series.  Saturday might be a great beach day. Then I see showers introduced into the forecasts again for Sunday. Not a long break in rainfall if indeed that  is true. 

 

 

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