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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

It's a stats thing more than anything. Areas that DO receive hail are actually very isolated. It just seems like "every other place gets hail other than X location" because you're looking at a small geographic area. This is similar to why SPC forecasts are for "severe within 25mi of a point"

I would bet that if you plotted hail reports from a statistically relevant period - the areas within the city boundaries have a similar return period than other areas.  

TL;DR - Hail in unusual in general in any area within our region. 

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-501>508-VAZ052>055-501-502-505-
506-181545-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0005.190618T1800Z-190619T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Eastern
  Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford,
  Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia.
  In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern Fauquier, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Southern Fauquier, Stafford,
  and Western Loudoun.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to develop across
  the watch area this afternoon and linger into the evening.
  Localized rainfall totals of several inches are possible. This
  could lead to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

It would figure the day I’m going to the Nationals game would be the day for multiple waves of storms to happen over DC. Last night we didn’t get much rain around Fredericksburg but the light show was pretty good. How much rain we looking at, 2”+ in some areas?

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