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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

120hr mark is honking hard on CIPS. 

Image?

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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks pretty nice for Monday?  Or is that Tuesday?

Looks like Monday to me.

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Appears as though the winds have backed to the south ahead of the afternoon's convection popping to our west.  Certainly feels humid out!

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hrrr doesn't suck for rush hour storms.  cape looks sketch, but shear is good.  with temps in the 70s, i'd consider any storms today similar to a game 6 in golden state win type of steal.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
VAC047-061-153-179-132115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0191.190613T2028Z-190613T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
428 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Central Culpeper County in northern Virginia...
  Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 428 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or
  9 miles east of Culpeper, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bealeton, Nokesville, Opal, Remington, Catlett, Calverton, Midland,
  Elkwood, Stevensburg, Roseville, Brandy Station, Lois,
  Garrisonville, Aden, Heflin, Morrisville, Ruby, Alanthus,
  Somerville and Sumerduck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 7791 3857 7794 3870 7752 3847 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 255DEG 26KT 3851 7784

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

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6 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Just had some pea sized hail out of the storm that just came through.

I got a mix of pea to marble sized hail just a little east of you.  Made quite a racket with the wind blowing it into windows on west side of house.  Got 0.56" in 10 minutes with that storm.

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

In Alexandria right now.  It is roaring.

Ditto on Capitol Hill. Sun is almost out, but it is just POURING. 

 

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33 minutes ago, Poodleusier said:

I got a mix of pea to marble sized hail just a little east of you.  Made quite a racket with the wind blowing it into windows on west side of house.  Got 0.56" in 10 minutes with that storm.

Yea the wind blowing it into the windows is how I knew it was hail. Was raining so hard had to open the back slider to confirm it and size. And yep got close to the same amount of rain. With that line and the stuff behind it got .66” total. Station up to 1.71” for the day. 

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0.98" on the day.  About .60 of that in the overnight and another .40 in the afternoon thunderstorm.  Right now my temp has fallen to the upper 50s, when I was out on the deck a minute ago I could see my breath, lol.  I think it is very close to fogging up here unless the winds hurry up and kick in.

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Got home from Hanover.  Nice gusty winds with a storm that went through there . Imby I got .31" of rain and I saw some leaves blown off with a couple small branches.  So it must of been a decent gusty  storm here as well . 1.22" for the overnight and afternoon grand total. 

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00z GFS sim radar looks intriguing at 72 hours on 00z MON (8pm SUN) and then again at hours 93 and 96 as you go from 21z MON into 00z TUES and as you go on Wednesday into Thursday

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Mount Holly's take this morning on the active upcoming period and severe potential for Sunday and esp Monday for most of our region.

The aforementioned cold front will be approaching the lower Great Lakes east-northeast to northern/central New England on Sunday, with several weak perturbations moving west-to-east near the boundary. Convection should readily develop along/downstream of the front by afternoon, mainly to our north/west but probably also in our CWA as well. The 00z GFS is depicting a stronger vort max approaching the northern Mid-Atlantic during the evening, with a round of strong/widespread convection in our area by this time. The 00z ECMWF is fairly similar, which provided enough confidence to raise PoPs to high-chance and even likely in northern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon/night. Precipitation will wane late Sunday night as nocturnal stabilization takes over and the strongest large-scale lift moves to our east. The CAPE/shear parameter space would be sufficient for severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening, and I am rather concerned the GFS is underdoing instability in the pre-frontal warm sector given increasingly warm/moist conditions. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings/hodographs suggest a substantial amount of low-level shear/helicity may exist. Will need to watch Sunday afternoon/night closely for the severe-weather threat in the coming days. After perhaps a brief reprieve late Sunday night into Monday morning, chances of strong convection return Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict another strong perturbation moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. Once again, the CAPE/shear parameter space is favorable for severe storms, though shear may be somewhat weaker than the previous day. However, the pre-frontal warm sector may be more unstable (using model sounding comparisons Sunday versus Monday). Complications from antecedent convection will exist (increasing the uncertainty in the forecast by this point), not to mention the model volatility already in place with the perturbations responsible for the larger-scale lift associated with the convection. Nevertheless, I am becoming quite concerned with the severe threat both of these days, and hydro issues will be an increasing concern as well given the multiple rounds of storms that may affect the area.

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CIPS was down from around late afternoon yesterday until this morning. Looks like the 0z run did not come out properly. We'll have to wait for the 12z run for any new information from that side of things. The severe weather CIPS page (which only runs at 0z) won't refresh until tomorrow morning it seems. 

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12z GFS soundings for KIAD and KDCA and KBWI at 00z MON (8pm Sunday) are pretty impressive considering its 60 hours out

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