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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0349.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Virginia...Eastern West Virginia...Southwestern
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 142149Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
central and northern Virginia over the next hour. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed soon across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a small cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms in western Virginia. This cluster
will continue to move northeastward into central Virginia where
strong deep-layer shear and instability will be sufficient for a
severe threat. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will
exist with this activity.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019
 

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1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said:

Watch coming soon for NVA and DC area, SPC meso issued just now, probability is 95%

We're a bit more unstable than I thought. Still not the greatest setup, but the risk for a quick QLCS spin-up is there per SPC meso:

qlcs.PNG.8bc8159131b730541aacdbf6deec0a42.PNG

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I guess there's your 3 discrete cells with the first round.  One near CHO, one to the east near Scottsville, the third further east just west of Chesterfield.

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50/20 tor probs... decent.  Also from watch discussion for our area through tonight:

Quote
SUMMARY...Initially, semi-discrete individual supercells may pose a
   tornado and damaging wind risk across northern Virginia early this
   evening, with other storms expected to develop and race
   northeastward across the region later tonight. Damaging winds and a
   tornado risk will exist with a potential multiple round of storms.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

50/20 tor probs... decent.  Also from watch discussion for our area through tonight:

Man if only we had like 3 good hours of sun today. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR for Nelson VA coming out.

Already been out twice down there 

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Just now, yoda said:

Already been out twice down there 

they're issuing for a 2nd possible tornado

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

they're issuing for a 2nd possible tornado

Yeah just read the warning... haven't seen that before from LWX

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SVR for Frederick / Carroll MD for possible TOR / wind.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SVR for Frederick / Carroll MD for possible TOR / wind.

Definitely some rotation in that storm, looks like it wants to wrap up on the S end a bit. 

edit: there's the TOR warn

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR for Frederick and Carroll now.

FDK right in/near the path

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Just now, yoda said:

FDK right in/near the path

Looks legit to me.

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Just now, yoda said:

STW NE Loudoun and SW Frederick toll 7pm... poss tor wording as well

that one is looking hooky now too... it's probably gonna get TW'd

storm W of Middleburg is also worth watching

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Just now, yoda said:

STW NE Loudoun and SW Frederick toll 7pm... poss tor wording as well

had a hook a few sans ago..also a third mini storm on its tail too

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks legit to me.

Hard to see on radar if it is there.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

that one is looking hooky now too... it's probably gonna get TW'd

storm W of Middleburg is also worth watching

Everything in this initial batch is game for a spinny.  Line to our west looks really linear, more QLCS / straight line wind threat.  just stepped outside my house and it's got that nice humid feel. 

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TW just outside of CHO left to expire. While I'm listing storms to watch, the one outside Lake Monticello has space to work and some low-level rotation. RIC storm has looked better, still surprised it didn't get warned.

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