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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Those are pretty silly parameters.  Don't know why people use them. 

I tend to just use them to get an idea of where the "best" activity might be - and also to look for consistency. Other than that I don't really think they have much use. I've seen days where they look crazy and we get nothing as well as days where just a little green shows up and we get multiple TORs

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Getting brighter here currently.

Mount Holly thinks the warm front may reach as far North as Philly by late afternoon.  May need to watch the Delmarva later. 

from AM update 

FXUS61 KPHI 031344
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019
Another shortwave trough will begin approaching the region by late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. Thus, this time frame
will be a focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop. Currently not expecting and of these storms to be severe,
but given modest instability during the late afternoon, cannot rule
out a rogue strong storm or two perhaps reaching severe criteria,
particularly across Delmarva.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gonna need to clear out ASAP if we want any chance at something today.  Satellite reallly has the wedge holding firm.  

Making a little progress - looks like DCA is out of the wedge and maybe even the southern parts of MoCo. 

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25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Making a little progress - looks like DCA is out of the wedge and maybe even the southern parts of MoCo. 

It's probably not happening today...the wedge is going to win today.  Mt. Holly's AFD supposes the clearing might work to Philly today.  If it get to Wilmington I'll be surprised.  You can see the low clouds just sitting there and being reinforced by flow off the ocean along US 50 from PG County east.

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, an incredible collection of videos within that link, thanks for posting mappy ! 

happy to share! i highly recommend the one where the camcorder was set up inside a house as the tornado passed by. the noise! 

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26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Delmarva starting to erode the wedge but no such luck in the DC/Balt area. 

 

21 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Hmm...depends where you are at. Wedge eroded here in PW. 77/66 with clear skies, west winds. 

Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore.  Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore.  Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?

Definitely looks like a little "tongue" of clearing is working it's way into central MoCo. 

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