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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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17 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Random question for you guys. Do you know of a site where I can find radar loops from any point in the past? I know on Wunderground they used to allow you to search the past on radar but I can't seem to be able to do it anymore. 

this is composite and not great for zooming in on small scale events, but it's another option.  i use it mostly for past winter storms or anything large scale:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2014&month=2&day=12&hour=0&minute=0

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1630z update put us in a SLGT risk for today.

...Northern VA and vicinity this afternoon...
   A small thunderstorm cluster and diffuse MCV will move eastward from
   the eastern WV Panhandle across northern VA/MD this afternoon. 
   Surface heating in advance of this minor wave will contribute to
   moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg), and some loose clustering
   of storms is expected this afternoon.  Steep low-level lapse rates
   and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will favor occasional downbursts with some
   potential for wind damage. 
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CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk.     But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance.   Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).   

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23 minutes ago, high risk said:

CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk.     But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance.   Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).   

Then that's the one we go with.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

Bump for severe weather risk tomorrow night into Sunday morning per SPC Day 2 OTLK (yes, MRGL risk, but our first chance is here!)

@high risk thoughts?  Most of us will probably be sleeping anyway lol

1730 Day 2 map and short disco is below... guess we use this for 2020?  Or does @Kmlwx want to make a new thread for the new year?

 

day2otlk_1730.gif.36270359e4ec06f3c68fe50ac3488b6e.gif

 

Quote

...Carolinas north into VA/MD...
   The latest model guidance shows at least weak instability (MUCAPE
   ranging from 250 J/kg north to 1000 J/kg south) as flow strengthens
   during the evening into the overnight.  CAM guidance suggests the
   possibility for a re-invigoration of storms east of the Appalachians
   as low-middle 60s surface dewpoints infiltrate the Carolina/VA
   Piedmont.  Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with this
   activity during the 04-12z period.
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