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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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32 minutes ago, high risk said:

    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.

Maybe a line will form an connect the southern storms with the northern ones. But then again that's just my weenie-ism talking.

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34 minutes ago, high risk said:

    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.

Some of the folks here are like my dad sometimes. "It's not gonna rain.. there is nothing showing on radar anywhere close!".

Ofc, he is not a weather hobbyist and does not understand concepts like surface convergence/upper level divergence, vorticity max, etc.

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30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another day without even a drop.  There is a storm firing 3 miles to my east right now.  Maybe I'll get to hear a rumble of distant thunder!

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

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15 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

You're also more famous than me...so you're at a higher risk. If anybody wants to mess with me they won't do much damage to little old me. 

ha, i'm not famous, but thank you for the compliment!

40 minutes ago, H2O said:

every day I'm not feeling it has given me rain.  So I'm not feeling it today despite the 80% chance.  Thats just because it can't storm 3 days in a row IMBY.  It just can't.  

can you send it up my way? 

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM nest keeps spitting out a nice supercell in the vicinity of DC on Thursday.  

The SPC discussion is rather "meh" overall. It certainly doesn't look as robust as those one or two NAM runs. Seems like they might have been flukes...

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

What, you don't like "poor lapse rates" and limited instability.  Tough to please ;)

After some legit severe days around here I've been disappointed recently. Guess I can't complain after having two tornadoes in a weeks time frame go right by my apartment. 

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        Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like.        This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day.    (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2).     As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong.     Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90.         There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR.

        It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability.    And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z,  so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.

 

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