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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening

The meso guidance this AM has been hinting at one or two beefy cells south of the Potomac with the typical popcorn around them.  We're in Maine for a wedding starting Thursday through the 27th so you can bank on something happening while I'm away.

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Morning update from LWX AFD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1034 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made some minor tweaks to the POPs and weather with the morning
update. There will be an opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms areawide this afternoon, but focused in on higher
POPs along and east of the Blue Ridge. This is in line with
most of the CAM guidance, and conceptually makes sense given
westerly downslope flow, which could limit storm coverage a bit
immediately in the lee of the Appalachians. Think that storms
will initiate around 2 PM give or take an hour and press toward
the I-95 corridor through the mid-late afternoon. Multiple
rounds of storms are possible, and storms could linger into the
evening hours, especially south and east of I-95. This morning`s
IAD sounding shows a predominantly straight-line hodograph,
with around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. However, there is a bit of a
weakness in the wind field above 6 km. MLCAPE is expected to
increase to 1000-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon. Given this
parameter space, the convective mode will favor multicell
clusters, along with some marginal supercell structures.
Splitting of the supercells will be possible given the straight
line hodograph. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with
these storms, but a few instances of larger hail can`t be ruled
out with the strongest storms. Flash flooding can`t be ruled
out either, with a slow moving boundary approaching the area,
and winds aloft paralleling the boundary.

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Winds are calm right now which I think is a good sign. IIRC i vaguely remember someone saying that breezy conditions before storm chances aren't good.

not necessarily -- southern breezes bring in the moisture and humidity, that help leads to storms. its usually situation dependent, not an all or nothing deal. 

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