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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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53 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looks like a night-time thunderstorm event on the way

Your thinking that line out in Western PA. keeps together and drops South and East as the evening progresses ?  

Then I believe the general idea is it stalls,  and depending where it stalls you then get that flood threat tomorrow late day and evening.  As mentioned by Mount Holly.

The system later in the week is progged to be a strong one,  the last in the series.  Saturday might be a great beach day. Then I see showers introduced into the forecasts again for Sunday. Not a long break in rainfall if indeed that  is true. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

From where? Nothing remotely close :huh:

Storms forming just east of Baltimore right now as an update. For now it looks like only across the bay seems to be getting the action unless the line near pittsburgh holds together which i doubt it will.

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From the 0100 OTLK from SPC:

Farther east, the IAD 00Z sounding shows a semi-favorable wind
   profile for severe cellular storms capable of mainly hail, with
   effective SRH around 150 m2/s2. A small time window exists in this
   area for a few severe storms, but the threat will also decrease
   through the evening here. If storms over WV can sustain into this
   area, a few strong wind gusts will be possible.

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Mid 70s low at DCA.  71/68 here.  Looks like the NAM came around to the HRRR’s idea of more scattered cells rather than something more organized.

It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're getting into low shear pulse season...was hoping we'd have a nice regionwide event by now.  Maybe we can get some home brew tropical this year.

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

Pattern does seem to look good for multiple days of storms at least within the general area as a whole (not speaking specifically about severe). I don't see any elevated odds for anything like a derecho or big outbreak. CIPS does seem supportive of a severe threat for the next 4-5 days or so, though. 

Give me a nice cluster of storms forming a cold pool. 

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