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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like it will be a red box too

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

Thank you for the clarification regarding the color :)

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

DCA and BWI...just need IAD for the trifecta.  Looks like some CU popping so the cap must be breaking.  Hope it holds until the storm get closer from the west.

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

I believe Eskimo Joe posted earlier that 12z IAD RAOB had convT of 89 degrees... so that's probably why the cap is breaking 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit?  Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties

If there's a red box anywhere today it will be there. 

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4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's always the blob. Looking for a June 2012 derecho but it never happens.

So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well? 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well? 

Correct on all accounts.  The 00z IAD sounding prior to the 2012 derecho had an 850 temp of +24.  the science officer at LWX did a quick analysis and found that 850 temps only occurred 6 times beforehand.  

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12 minutes ago, mappy said:

new thunderstorm watch out for the Pitt area -- any watches issued for us, or PA, will be blue. That's my call. 

well shit. blue box for us at least... maybe. ill shut up now

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Just now, high risk said:

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

well maybe in that maybe we will see one? who knows -- i didn't think conditions were that great for tornadoes in PA, but alas, here we are. I could drive to a tornado watch lol

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well maybe in that maybe we will see one? who knows -- i didn't think conditions were that great for tornadoes in PA, but alas, here we are. I could drive to a tornado watch lol

          We're almost certain to get a blue box later.      I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent.   So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR.

 

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