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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nothing severe here, but active T &L, and pounding rain.  This has to be close to 2" on the day.  River running down the street gutters.  Pollen  taking it on the chin today.

 Thankfully, got the mowing done seconds before the supercell this afternoon.

Desert getting flooded lol

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I got a few mediocre looks at the earlier severe-warned hailer over Stephens City. Of course, the best views were from the highway when there was nowhere to stop -- that's how it always goes.

Hailing over Boyce, VA

DSC_0315_00001.thumb.jpg.1574ade887523b86b7498af3d928e35f.jpg

 

Storm east of Berryville, crossing over into WV. Severe warning cancelled at this time.

DSC_0318_00002.thumb.jpg.4045925bce22220b168820ac3026893c.jpg

DSC_0325_00003.thumb.jpg.2e75eaaecb59eeb3cec2f54cd61008c9.jpg

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94ewbg.gif?1556965774060

Mesos depicting some decent FGEN associated with a boundary at 850 mb. Looks like that is where the axis of heaviest rain will set up later tonight. Probably along I-95, and more towards NE MD and SE PA, and into SNJ.

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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles,
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison,
  Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, Warren, and Western
  Loudoun. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy,
  Jefferson, and Western Pendleton.

* From this evening through Sunday morning

* Widespread showers will develop this evening along with possible
  thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is expected. Average
  rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 3 inches with locally
  higher amounts around 4 inches possible.

* Heavy rainfall in short periods of time may cause creeks and
  streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with the
  potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
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was in harrisonburg last night for a graduation ceremony, which ended up getting postponed midway through due to the incoming storms.  we were on the south side of the main line, but still got some breeze, torrents, and a couple of legitimate lightning strikes.  drove home too late to catch the stuff as it made its way further east, but that's 2 decent storms in a week for me in early may.

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Anyone got where the EURO places the WF/stationary front on Sunday?  This tidbit is from the Day 3 SPC OTLK:

Quote

 It should be noted that the ECMWF model has the stationary front
   much farther north into VA with more pronounced shear east of the
   low. This solution suggests severe storms, including supercells, may
   affect parts of VA. Model trends will continue to be monitored in
   later updates. In addition, a lack of early day convection across
   AL/MS may indicate the need for a westward expansion of the Slight
   Risk area in later updates.
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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

The 1630 SPC OTLK basically called today crap down here even with the MRGL risk still reaching us lol

forecasts for sun vs clouds has always been notoriously bad here, so i'm not too surprised.  i don't like that there's a breeze right now...always prefer a stagnant airmass for severe chances.  just hunch forecasting without science behind it.

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