Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

920pm LWX AFD update:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Initial round of discrete cells has moved through the area. Some
scattered showers and storms will remain possible the next few
hours, but overall we will be in a lull until the line
stretching through West Virginia reaches us. The 00Z IAD
sounding sampled the environment which contains very strong
shear but limited instability. Even though the storms so far had
a strong disconnect with the lowest levels, the environment
continues to modify due to a strong low level jet and moisture
advection despite it being after dark. Models continue to
indicate CAPE will actually increase the next several hours
ahead of the approaching line. One clue to the overall severity
may be the strength of surface wind gusts. So far they have been
fairly limited, but if they increase, that could be an indicator
strong winds may have an easier time making it to the surface.
Severe level winds have been observed with bowing segments in
West Virginia. Any bulges in the line which orient into a
northeasterly direction could produce a tornado as well (more
favorable orientation to low level shear). It`s important not to
let complacency build with the lull the evening and the lack of
severe weather so far...residents should have a way to receive
weather warnings overnight. Would expect the threat to ramp up
between 10-11 PM along the Appalachians, and reach the I-95
corridor around 2-3 AM. It`s a little uncertain if the initial
line stays in tact the whole way across, or if it breaks up and
new convection develops in the more favorable environment
near/east of the Blue Ridge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Discrete cells overnight in April ... I dunno, that seems it would be rather ... anomalous for our region. 

Don't know if they make it north of I64, but there are more than a few bands and discrete cells developing across SW VA in the new tornado watch area, heading NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SPC mesoscale page has a relatively new Beta parameter, the Violent Tornado parameter. It has been fairly accurate with the significant tornadoes so far this season. The large bullseye in central NC that ramped up over the past few hours to a level of 15, needs to pass south and east of us or diminish just as quickly as it ramped up. I believe it may pass through the eastern side of our forecast area in a few hours.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New tornado watch incoming for central and eastern VA downstream from the eastern side of our area.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 150407Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected. A tornado watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers have developed in central North
Carolina within the last hour on the western edge of a higher
theta-e airmass in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. These 70+
degree dewpoints are expected to continue to advect northwestward
which will aid in destabilization across the area as temperatures
cool aloft. The updrafts currently lack deep growth amid strong
shear, but are expected to slowly deepen and eventually reach severe
strength in the next 1 to 2 hours as the instability increases and
the low-level jet strengthens (~70 knots per RAX VWP). Effective
shear in excess of 60 knots will support supercell storm mode with a
risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Directional shear is
not all that strong, but 0 to 1 km speed shear in excess of 50 knots
may support some low-level mesocyclone organization.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said:

Well, it is certainly a good thing that we did not have any further elevated levels of instability earlier to aid these storms. The line across the Appalachians is breaking up somewhat into segments and discrete storms and segments are dominant east of the Blue Ridge from here south to the Carolina's.

So you think short term weather models are wrong showing redevelopment?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...