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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

TW just outside of CHO left to expire. While I'm listing storms to watch, the one outside Lake Monticello has space to work and some low-level rotation.

That's my cell to watch.  If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.

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4 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said:

Out in Crozet... nothing came to pass with the tornado warning. Just a light shower. 

1.52 inches of rain just over Afton mt from Crozet at the edge of  Waynesboro, very little thunder despite being near the tornado warning.... some brief winds...

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Both have some beautiful hooks but haven't been able to put it together for whatever reason.

TW for storm N of Roanoke, that's downstream of me again. Maybe I can hear some thunder this time.

Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide.  Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide.  Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.

It might in a lil while when the LLJ strengthens some more across the region and when the CF gets closer

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I don't get it should have been warned long ago

 

edit: 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
731 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  
  NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 731 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER WESTMINSTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe, but it’s far less robust than a few minutes ago. 

The dominant cell still looks good.

eta: it’s looking pretty good now. Two very interesting cells...

so there was a train of three...the first one was the original TOR warned storm...its gone....the current TOR warned storms is the "second" one....and the hooky one behind that #3

now is there #4 west of number #3 now,,another mini storm

and perhaps even a 5th south of #4 now along the river ?

 

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0642 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND FAR  
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67...  
  
VALID 142342Z - 150045Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH  
67.  
  
DISCUSSION...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN  
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE  
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 67 FOR THE NEXT HOUR  
OR TWO. GIVEN THE LOW-TOPPED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND VERY LITTLE  
LIGHTNING, THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH A  
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IT IS  
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AS MOST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO  
CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE  
THREAT FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 01Z.  

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0355.html

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0355
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...West Virginia and far southwest Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

   Valid 150031Z - 150130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues across severe
   thunderstorm watch 70.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has strengthened across West Virginia in the
   last 30 minutes with several stronger cores now along with a few
   bowing segments. This can likely be attributed to the stronger deep
   layer ascent, as well as a strengthening low-level jet. This
   strengthening low-level jet can be seen on the RLX VWP as winds have
   increased 20 knots between 1 and 2 km in the last hour. The stronger
   storms are currently in the northern half of the watch, and this
   trend is expected to continue based on the orientation of the line
   and the presence of the stronger deep layer ascent.

   ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   39398072 39528026 39547963 39177933 38307964 37637997
               37218031 36888079 36778147 36848178 37138185 37988160
               39398072 

 

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