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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion


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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0349.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Virginia...Eastern West Virginia...Southwestern
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 142149Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
central and northern Virginia over the next hour. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed soon across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a small cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms in western Virginia. This cluster
will continue to move northeastward into central Virginia where
strong deep-layer shear and instability will be sufficient for a
severe threat. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will
exist with this activity.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019
 

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50/20 tor probs... decent.  Also from watch discussion for our area through tonight:

Quote

SUMMARY...Initially, semi-discrete individual supercells may pose a
   tornado and damaging wind risk across northern Virginia early this
   evening, with other storms expected to develop and race
   northeastward across the region later tonight. Damaging winds and a
   tornado risk will exist with a potential multiple round of storms.
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

that one is looking hooky now too... it's probably gonna get TW'd

storm W of Middleburg is also worth watching

Everything in this initial batch is game for a spinny.  Line to our west looks really linear, more QLCS / straight line wind threat.  just stepped outside my house and it's got that nice humid feel. 

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