Winter 2019-2020

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface ENSO. 

[Maestrobjwa]

@stormtracker Get him, lol

[aldie 22]

Warmest winter ever?

[winterymix]

We are overdue for a midwinter run at 80.

[showmethesnow]

16 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Subsurface ENSO. 

5 day sub surface temp anomalies? You might as well use a....

 

 

[WxUSAF]

ENSO progs I’ve seen are all over the place from strong Nino to mod Nina. I guess average was maintaining a warm neutral or barely weak Nino. But I think ENSO progs aren’t much use until early summer.

[nj2va]

How do the weeklies look?  

[mattie g]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Epic. Never seen anything like it. Especially weeks 3 & 4. 

Weeniest of all weenie runs. In the 75 years I’ve been tracking, there’s really been nothing close aside from three days in January 1946 that I remember clearly because of how weenie they were

Cold, wet, and blocky for weeks on end. Get the shovels ready...until you don’t need them!

[Bob Chill]

I predict winter 2019-20 will feature excessive complaining and unrealistic expectations no matter how much snow falls. Well... unless temps never go above freezing and deep snowpack lasts from thanksgiving to easter. If that happens there will only be modest complaining. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

ENSO progs I’ve seen are all over the place from strong Nino to mod Nina. I guess average was maintaining a warm neutral or barely weak Nino. But I think ENSO progs aren’t much use until early summer.

Usually the strong events are getting going by now. The current Kelvin Wave suggests El Nino will continue. 

2019    1     0.69      0.77       0.76
2019    2     0.74      0.90       1.07

March will be up in all 3

 

2015    1     0.28      0.22       0.15
2015    2     0.54      0.65       0.83
2015    3     0.85      1.17       1.52

2014    1     0.18      0.00      -0.33
2014    2     0.43      0.42       0.39
2014    3     0.93      1.21       1.60

2005    1      .40       .42        .52
2005    2      .29       .42        .59
2005    3      .49       .72       1.27

1997    1      .54       .49        .56
1997    2      .84       .85       1.00
1997    3     1.09      1.26       1.17

All were El Nino years. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

1990 makes it 30 years and that was Neutral. 

1990    1      .63       .68        .78
1990    2      .86       .98       1.08
1990    3      .68       .88       1.14

 

1982    1      .33       .22        .21
1982    2      .59       .53        .56
1982    3      .74       .78        .92

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Hope we get a strong El Nino- as I always say, I’d roll the dice every year with a super Nino if I could. HECS or bust. Every other ENSO state is a waste of time IMBY.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Hope we get a strong El Nino- as I always say, I’d roll the dice every year with a super Nino if I could. HECS or bust. Every other ENSO state is a waste of time IMBY.

Nope--ya don't want that. Because since 1966, strong ninos have only given a HECS every other time. So, since 2016 gave a HECS, the next super nino could be a bust if that trend continues! (We have literally gone: 1965/66 HECS, 1972/73 bust, 1982/83 HECS, 1997/98 bust  2015/16 HECS! Which might mean...lol)

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 3/3/2019 at 10:28 AM, Bob Chill said:

I predict winter 2019-20 will feature excessive complaining and unrealistic expectations no matter how much snow falls. Well... unless temps never go above freezing and deep snowpack lasts from thanksgiving to easter. If that happens there will only be modest complaining. 

This sounds like a very diplomatic way of saying "Ji"! 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nope--ya don't want that. Because since 1966, strong ninos have only given a HECS every other time. So, since 2016 gave a HECS, the next super nino could be a bust if that trend continues! (We have literally gone: 1965/66 HECS, 1972/73 bust, 1982/83 HECS, 1997/98 bust  2015/16 HECS! Which might mean...lol)

Even taking that far-too-small sample size, my HECS success rate would be 60% (much better than any other ENSO state down here). 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Hoping for a record strong nina.  Waters in Pacific colder than the Arctic Ocean.

[frd]

On 3/3/2019 at 9:35 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Epic. Never seen anything like it. Especially weeks 3 & 4. 

Eh.....  I want a refund, these were spouted all preseason and all winter -  going to have to hit the gym and watch my diet so I can wait for next year.  

Its cool though, life is a balance just like the weather.  

One year soon we will get slammed again.  

09-10 

02 - 03 

95- 96  

1962 Nor'Easter 

1993 the triple phase 

1958

1966 

1977 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

On 3/3/2019 at 6:06 AM, leesburg 04 said:

Warmest winter ever?

we got 5 inches on Nov 15. That is where you are off. I actually measured that one

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 3/5/2019 at 1:38 PM, Ji said:

we got 5 inches on Nov 15. That is where you are off. I actually measured that one

It's been a global stagnation since then. (MJO has really been the only thing.)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'm convinced that the number 1 thing we need to look for is +PDO. Even in Strong El Nino, the snowstorm would only last 3-4 days. We need well defined +PDO. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@Maestrobjwa

Really there were only three super Ninos (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16), two of which produced super HECS, so my odds would be like 2/3. I'll take it. 

I'm not even sure how much ENSO matters anymore anyway- this winter was a classic La Nina IMBY.

[Maestrobjwa]

40 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@Maestrobjwa

Really there were only three super Ninos (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16), two of which produced super HECS, so my odds would be like 2/3. I'll take it. 

I'm not even sure how much ENSO matters anymore anyway- this winter was a classic La Nina IMBY.

Ya can't really say "it doesn't matter anymore" just because things didn't go as planned this year. It was a weak nino that wasn't strong enough to not get disrupted by other influences...I'd be willing to bet this isn't the first time that's happened! (Weak Niños average a little over 15" at BWI)

[psuhoffman]

On 3/4/2019 at 12:24 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Hope we get a strong El Nino- as I always say, I’d roll the dice every year with a super Nino if I could. HECS or bust. Every other ENSO state is a waste of time IMBY.

A moderate to strong modoki nino almost guarantees a good winter. 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010 all good. Only 1992 was a dud and most think the eruption was to blame. 

A strong east based nino is a warm signal but does increase the chance of a HECS but would be relatively snowless otherwise. And if we strike out with that big storm it can end up a snowless winter like 1973 and 1998. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A moderate to strong modoki nino almost guarantees a good winter. 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010 all good. Only 1992 was a dud and most think the eruption was to blame. 

A strong east based nino is a warm signal but does increase the chance of a HECS but would be relatively snowless otherwise. And if we strike out with that big storm it can end up a snowless winter like 1973 and 1998. 

What was '83?

Recall that was a lame winter outside the HECS.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

What was '83?

Recall that was a lame winter outside the HECS.

Strong east based nino.  There have been 4 strong east or basin wide +enso events during the modern era  

1972-3, 1982-3, 1997-8, 2015-16  

They have a very consistent patterns.  Active stj.  But long stretches where the conus is flooded with warmth. Lots of storms that have no snow with them until you get pretty far north or elevation.   2/4 we got lucky to time one of the stj storms with some cold. The other 2 were just dumpster fires. 

[psuhoffman]

On 3/3/2019 at 8:40 AM, WxUSAF said:

ENSO progs I’ve seen are all over the place from strong Nino to mod Nina. I guess average was maintaining a warm neutral or barely weak Nino. But I think ENSO progs aren’t much use until early summer.

We should probably look at the best analogs for every enso permutation just to cover our bases. 

If....

Strong modoki nino then like 1992

weak modoki nino 1995

strong nino 1998

weak nino 1959

neutral 2002

weak Nina 2012

strong Nina 1989 

that should cover it  

 

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Strong east based nino.  There have been 4 strong east or basin wide +enso events during the modern era  

1972-3, 1982-3, 1997-8, 2015-16  

They have a very consistent patterns.  Active stj.  But long stretches where the conus is flooded with warmth. Lots of storms that have no snow with them until you get pretty far north or elevation.   2/4 we got lucky to time one of the stj storms with some cold. The other 2 were just dumpster fires. 

I'm a big fan of those type of winters though, so that's my preference. The worst is basically... what we have right now.

Isn't 72/73 considered a step down from the other three in terms of strength though? Usually I only see 82/83, 97/98, and 15/16 listed as the top Ninos.