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OBS thread 2P Mar 3-10A Mar 4 (snow, possible sleet s fringe)

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Surprised to hear it was that high, see this wasn't an epic bust for the city outside of the immediate ocean areas and Manhattan

Plenty of trees, and dead people. Cemeteries really help not only radiate on clear nights but really cut down UHI effect in general. Couldn't help the mid level push and sleet, although the sleet didnt last too long.

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6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Surprised to hear it was that high, see this wasn't an epic bust for the city outside of the immediate ocean areas and Manhattan

Off topic, but forest park is quite photogenic after a wet snow that sticks to branches. Bet last night was a prime photo op.

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I went out around 11 and cleared the cars and moved some snow out of the way and in the shade the snow on the cars hadn't settled too much so I stuck a ruler in. It was at 11"! Surprised the heck out of me.

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54 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Surprised to hear it was that high, see this wasn't an epic bust for the city outside of the immediate ocean areas and Manhattan

It really wasn't, but a little bit of UHI goes a long way in storms like this.  You get the complaint that it didn't "feel" like 5" of snow because you lose accumulating precip to still warm paved surfaces.  And it's a valid point in terms of population impact. 

 

It's still a bust in the city though.  No one said the job was easy!

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Well the airmass in place was colder in November 2012.  The ocean here is to the south so a NE wind doesn't impact it, but it impacts LGA because LGA has the Sound to its north and northeast.  If you compare JFK vs LGA snowfall totals in November 2012, you'll see a big disparity.  Similar thing happened in October 2011.

 

I don't doubt that there have been probably many occasions where JFK does better than LGA in Nov, but your post implied that that is a general case, which would surprise me - do the long terms snowfall amounts for each reflect JFK doing better, on average, in Nov than LGA?

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I noticed on the snowfall reports that NWS measurements were in general lower than those done by the public. I wonder if some of the public folks included what was on the ground from the Friday storm.

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Haven't been on in a few, but it was a decent thump at MMU; seemed like more than half a foot by me. Very pretty.  

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5 hours ago, psv88 said:

omg 6.6?

Yeah I live right along the South Shore in Lindenhurst.  Mother Nature is paying us back for the good fortune she bestowed upon us since I moved back here from DC in 2013 (and for a few years preceding that, I take it).

 

I must correct myself though.  The 3.1" we saw in November before the changeover is actually slightly less than a majority of my seasonal total.  Still.....blehhh......

 

Honestly, it's that time of year where the sun starts getting higher in the sky and I am ready for some quality bike-riding weather.  Don't get me wrong, I'll get hyped about whatever bonus snow comes my way, but I am also excited about spring approaching.  This winter's been a huge learning experience for me (and I hope for many others as well).  I look forward to taking those lessons into next winter, which will hopefully be a rocking second-year Niño.....one that behaves as such....  ;)

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Those northern Brooklyn/southwestern queens neighborhoods tend to do well with these marginal events. We tend to receive 1-3” more snow than say Coney Island or JFK. Especially last night. As @purduewx80 atested to, we mixed here for literally 30 min tops which probably didn’t cut into snow totals too much. There is a 15 mile difference between here and Coney Island which can prove huge sometimes

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I think people on here call bust because they really want to get a large scale snowstorm. I understand it's disappointing, I am a big snow lover too. If the forecast and models showed 20 inches and some areas got that, but the south shore only got 15, people wouldn't be calling bust. So I never understand why people do when there's a few inches of difference in these little storms. 

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RGEM really flunked this one. It was pretty obvious given models like the Euro and NAM being warmer and risking a mix on the coast cutting down amounts, but it’s a far cry from the go-to model it was a couple winters ago. 

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2 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

It really wasn't, but a little bit of UHI goes a long way in storms like this.  You get the complaint that it didn't "feel" like 5" of snow because you lose accumulating precip to still warm paved surfaces.  And it's a valid point in terms of population impact. 

 

It's still a bust in the city though.  No one said the job was easy!

Uptons forecast was 5-8 for the city. Sounds like a good amount of places in the city were around 4-5 inches so definitely not way off from the low end of Uptons forecast.  

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A lot of this is perception.  It technically was on the low end of the range but when there is little impact to the streets and only for a short while, it just takes away from the overall "wintry" scene that we all enjoy.  The 4 inch storm overnight Friday was better on this front.

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1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

A lot of this is perception.  It technically was a low end of the prediction 5" snowfall but when there is little impact to the streets, it just takes away from the overall "wintry" scene that we all enjoy.  The 4 inch storm overnight Friday was better on this front.

Yea I'm not sure how the roads were in the rest of the city, in the North Bronx they were pretty snow covered at the height of the storm. Either way March snow melts so fast. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM really flunked this one. It was pretty obvious given models like the Euro and NAM being warmer and risking a mix on the coast cutting down amounts, but it’s a far cry from the go-to model it was a couple winters ago. 

Take a look at last night's 0Z EURO (during the storm). It had JFK getting 9 inches. It got 2.2. There was a warm layer above 850 that almost all the models did a bad job on.

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4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Take a look at last night's 0Z EURO (during the storm). It had JFK getting 9 inches. It got 2.2. There was a warm layer above 850 that almost all the models did a bad job on.

Ratios at JFK were also likely much less than 10-1, temps were above freezing, and it was warmer aloft than expected. Even up here in a colder location on LI, the snow intensity wasn’t really anything great until temps warmed up and it had a hard time accumulating when it wasn’t mixed with rain or sleet. If the ground to 800mb was 2 degrees colder, there would be widespread 8-10” amounts here instead of a few inches. 

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9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Just measured 8" here. I know that's less than it should be, since at 12:40 I had 7.5" (snowed for awhile after).  I wasn't staying up all night though after working both days this weekend.

I ended with 7.5 , like an idiot I stayed up .  The end of the storm was light stuff so basically the last  1.5 hrs it didn’t add much to totals.  

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4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I ended with 7.5 , like an idiot I stayed up .  The end of the storm was light stuff so basically the last  1.5 hrs it didn’t add much to totals.  

Yeah I wasn't doing it last night, but it pains me not to know the exact amount lol.  I know that I lost at least a half inch due to compaction and the sun.  So I probably had upwards of 8.5" or so.  Biggest storm of the season for us, and it was a really nice scene with the snow stuck to everything. 

Probably one of our last snow events.  This week looks cold but dry, and by next week things should warm up.

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9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Saw 9" reported from Kinnelon, where I grew up, and perhaps a couple hundred feet higher elevation than where you are.  Current homestead too far NW for the good stuff, will finish with 3-4".

Also could have been on southern side  of kinnelon , place to south of me def had better echoe returns during much of the storm . I had 7.5 in my part of  butler  and I’m on north end of butler but lower elevation(400 feet )

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7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I don't doubt that there have been probably many occasions where JFK does better than LGA in Nov, but your post implied that that is a general case, which would surprise me - do the long terms snowfall amounts for each reflect JFK doing better, on average, in Nov than LGA?

Well the sample size is pretty small lol.  We're basically talking about two storms, October 2011 and November 2012.  This season's storm they were about equal, which is interesting in and of itself since it involved a changeover.  NYC beat them both in that storm.

But while the Oct 2011 and Nov 2012 storm was going on we had active threads and people were commenting how it was "white raining" at LGA while (especially with the November 2012 storm) there was a nice snow dumping of snow accumulating to their south.  We had around 8" here in that one, a very heavy wet snow with tree branches down everywhere and really bad roads, added disruption after Sandy.  Central NJ had a double digit snowfall with that one, historic for the first week of November!

 

 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Ratios at JFK were also likely much less than 10-1, temps were above freezing, and it was warmer aloft than expected. Even up here in a colder location on LI, the snow intensity wasn’t really anything great until temps warmed up and it had a hard time accumulating when it wasn’t mixed with rain or sleet. If the ground to 800mb was 2 degrees colder, there would be widespread 8-10” amounts here instead of a few inches. 

Fascinating thing about that was after it changed to a rain/snow mix it changed back to snow two times before it finally changed over completely around 1 am and stayed as a mix until the final hour of the storm.

The mix line was bobbing up and down for a couple of hours!

 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Ratios at JFK were also likely much less than 10-1, temps were above freezing, and it was warmer aloft than expected. Even up here in a colder location on LI, the snow intensity wasn’t really anything great until temps warmed up and it had a hard time accumulating when it wasn’t mixed with rain or sleet. If the ground to 800mb was 2 degrees colder, there would be widespread 8-10” amounts here instead of a few inches. 

Yes, you need an Arctic airmass this time of year.....why dont storms like this happen with airmasses like the one we're going to have in the middle of the week?  What a waste!

 

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5 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

A lot of this is perception.  It technically was on the low end of the range but when there is little impact to the streets and only for a short while, it just takes away from the overall "wintry" scene that we all enjoy.  The 4 inch storm overnight Friday was better on this front.

It also helped that that storm lasted well into the morning on Saturday.

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6 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Those northern Brooklyn/southwestern queens neighborhoods tend to do well with these marginal events. We tend to receive 1-3” more snow than say Coney Island or JFK. Especially last night. As @purduewx80 atested to, we mixed here for literally 30 min tops which probably didn’t cut into snow totals too much. There is a 15 mile difference between here and Coney Island which can prove huge sometimes

But then why did areas in the Hudson Valley get double digits while no where in the city was there more than 5"?  The head of the sanitation department was being interviewed and he said the storm went easier than expected because the forecasts were wrong because the majority of it was rain (he said this on live TV lol.)

 

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6 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I live right along the South Shore in Lindenhurst.  Mother Nature is paying us back for the good fortune she bestowed upon us since I moved back here from DC in 2013 (and for a few years preceding that, I take it).

 

I must correct myself though.  The 3.1" we saw in November before the changeover is actually slightly less than a majority of my seasonal total.  Still.....blehhh......

 

Honestly, it's that time of year where the sun starts getting higher in the sky and I am ready for some quality bike-riding weather.  Don't get me wrong, I'll get hyped about whatever bonus snow comes my way, but I am also excited about spring approaching.  This winter's been a huge learning experience for me (and I hope for many others as well).  I look forward to taking those lessons into next winter, which will hopefully be a rocking second-year Niño.....one that behaves as such....  ;)

you want a strong el nino here to take over the pattern, not this weakling.  Our two best scenarios are strong el ninos and la ninas that come after el ninos.

 

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13 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

Also could have been on southern side  of kinnelon , place to south of me def had better echoe returns during much of the storm . I had 7.5 in my part of  butler  and I’m on north end of butler but lower elevation(400 feet )

That's logical, as much of the town is at 600' or above - our place was at 700.  The January 1953 ice storm tore branches out of just about every tree in our 'hood, had my dad cutting bent-over gray birch out of our road twice (those not bent on day 1 were in the road next morning) and took out power for six days.  Downtown Butler had mainly rain and no damage.

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14 hours ago, mikem81 said:

Take a look at last night's 0Z EURO (during the storm). It had JFK getting 9 inches. It got 2.2. There was a warm layer above 850 that almost all the models did a bad job on.

Yeah the Euro had like 9-12" while reality was more 4-8" with lower amounts right near the coast. Mid-level warming was an issue as even the Bronx mixed with sleet a bit.

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3 hours ago, nzucker said:

Yeah the Euro had like 9-12" while reality was more 4-8" with lower amounts right near the coast. Mid-level warming was an issue as even the Bronx mixed with sleet a bit.

I only had sleet the last hour in Whitestone. Brooklyn and south shore went over to sleet 2 hours before that. That’s why we ended with 5” instead of 2”.

My roads were completely snow covered with 2”-3” of snow during height of storm and there is still 100% coverage of snow on everything but pavement. The pack is solidified too from the freeze. Will last longer than a typical March storm.

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