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AsheCounty48

2019 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread

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Yeah precip shield just needs to blossom a bit more, but 500mb low dips under the Apps and goes slightly negative tilt. Any more and it would pull the whole precip shield into WNC. Lots of interesting dynamics with this one, I think it’s going to be a nowcast(cliché).

Yeah if this were December I'd be horribly disappointed with that amount of moisture but going into April any run within 60 hours showing snow is good to me.

 

Had a couple good snow showers earlier which was a nice way to close March.

 

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I guess winter decided that any snow in December is all that we deserve until next winter in Asheville.  It is amazing how much rain we have had, and how many storms that stay SE of us when there is any cold weather to speak. Don't get me wrong. I hope Simpsonville, Charlotte, Greenville get dumped on. They deserve it !!!  I just can't believe how we have been shut out since December. Of course, I guess Franklin has had it even worse than us in Asheville this year?  

Maybe we will get a surprise NW trend. That never works out when we need it.

 

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SREF avg up over 1” for KAVL. I think we will at least see a snow shower around WNC tomorrow am. System already looks stout on radar with ip being reported in ETX.

 

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12 minutes ago, Hvward said:

SREF avg up over 1” for KAVL. I think we will at least see a snow shower around WNC tomorrow am. System already looks stout on radar with ip being reported in ETX.

 

Got a feeling that I'm too far north and west to see much...which is fine by me.  

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SREF avg up over 1” for KAVL. I think we will at least see a snow shower around WNC tomorrow am. System already looks stout on radar with ip being reported in ETX.
 
Yeah there's lightning where the NAM/HRRR were advertising dry. Holding onto hope for now. Might as well ride the ship to the bottom.

Came down off the mountain today and nice to see leaves on the trees. Just about ready for flower season.
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Not sure how big a threat it is but in about 10 days the Euro is showing a strong trough in the east with some type of system maybe.  Looking at the indices I think this has some merrit with the AO and the NAO finally going negative somewhat.  Something to look at and track possible. 

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On 4/3/2019 at 8:14 AM, Met1985 said:

Not sure how big a threat it is but in about 10 days the Euro is showing a strong trough in the east with some type of system maybe.  Looking at the indices I think this has some merrit with the AO and the NAO finally going negative somewhat.  Something to look at and track possible. 

Last year the AO and NAO went negative and IIRC a +PNA at the beginning of March and stayed that way through April.  All I remember was wall to wall below normal temperatures in April of last year.  I started to look at the data and the following were the temps the first 3 days of April 2018 at KAVL:

  • 4/1 – 75 F
  • 4/2 – 78 F
  • 4/3 – 76 F

Goes to show I shouldn’t trust my memory.:)

Not a fan of cold in April but since snow is so rare lately I wouldn’t mind seeing some in April as long as there is no deep freeze.
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23 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

The gfs and euro both show some higher elevation snow in the 9-10 day range.

 

 

Yeah I was going to say the euro shows a potential for a large sized system affecting us in about a week... That being said it could be gone today the way the models have been handling things recently. 

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Sunday is shaping up to be an active day in the mountains. 

SPC AC 120730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
   the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
   Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
   period is expected to advance steadily east across the
   Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
   reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
   Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.

   At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
   across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
   Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
   Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
   accompany this system.

   ...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
   Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
   north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
   of the advancing cold front.  As modest heating of a moistening
   pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
   is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
   the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  This should result in a gradual
   intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
   strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
   including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.

   Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
   embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts.  Damaging winds will
   likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
   across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
   mountains.  Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
   though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.

day3prob_0730.gif

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Looks like we will have a very active day the next 24 hours with high winds, severe storms, then a chance of snow tomorrow morning...
I'm moving back to GA in a few weeks due to some issues so this is just mother nature giving me a goodbye show.
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This storm has been far less impressive than I thought it was going to be. Mountains chewed it up. Only .19 inches of rain and a little breezy and that's it. Maybe some redevelopment later? I want to hear some noise.

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21 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:
22 hours ago, Met1985 said:
Looks like we will have a very active day the next 24 hours with high winds, severe storms, then a chance of snow tomorrow morning...

I'm moving back to GA in a few weeks due to some issues so this is just mother nature giving me a goodbye show.

Man I hate to hear that. Best of luck.

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6 hours ago, Buckethead said:

31 and flurries currently.  I'm glad we return to spring tomorrow.

That trough coming in this coming weekend looks potent. It wouldn't be Easter around here with out it being cold... 

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This mornings GFS shows the deep trough and cut off low developing with rain changing to snow for the mountains.  That scenario would bring several inches of snow to the higher elevations this weekend. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

This mornings GFS show the deep trough and cut off low developing with rain changing to snow for the mountains.  That scenario would bring several inches of snow to the higher elevations this weekend. 

Yes indeed.  GFS, FV3 and Euro all trended further south and show some lee low development with prolonged snow Friday night through most of Saturday.  If this trend holds I'll be making a drive up from GA for one more snow.  

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