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showmethesnow

Friday Night Coastal March 1/2 disco and obs

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12z Nam looks like another good run for the NW Crew.

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It's a little weaker overall so it won't get it done down close to the cities but its a winter storm from about Leesburg-ish west and North on the 12z Nam.

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Just now, SnowCane said:

I just feel bad for whoever gets 33 and rain tonight.  May be me, but we’ll see! 

Thank you for that.  I don't want to be that guy but I think I will be that guy.  its all for the greater good if Monday hits.  If not, onward toward November

 

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most recent 850 mb temp chart. This will be fun to track throughout the day. If we can somehow hold on to 850's throughout the day, and if we do indeed get decent precipitation rates tonight, I think we could see a mix into the cities. This is the type of storm where PSU has the potential to cash in big time given his elevation. 

850mb.gif

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You know, some people on this forum will likely get three, maybe even four, straight days of accumulating snow to start the month of March. That is crazy. 

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Well we're three year removed from the last leap year ... so if it is going to happen ...

I consider the March 1st - 10th period a prime snow period for this area. 

 

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3k NAM is like 1C between the surface and 750mb from being a beat down this evening IMBY.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is like 1C between the surface and 750mb from being a beat down this evening IMBY.

Pretty damn close to isothermal just nw of the cities.

Nam3kTonight.png

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43 minutes ago, mappy said:

yet you checked in and commented anyways. :P 

Seriously though, you ok? You seem a little... off.. today

Perhaps @mattie g is (like myself) wondering why FCPS didn't cancel school last night, for a chilly rain today, as PWC invariably did. :clap:

Currently 34/30 at Fort Belvoir, with a few pity patches of sleety crystals on mulch beds. Fully anticipating a chilly rain for most of the next 24 hours. MEH.

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12 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

You know, some people on this forum will likely get three, maybe even four, straight days of accumulating snow to start the month of March. That is crazy. 

And may possibly keep snowcover for over a week. With a couple chances again later next this could be one of the longest stretches for some to have at least 1 inch on the ground in march.

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25 minutes ago, SnowCane said:

I just feel bad for whoever gets 33 and rain tonight.  May be me, but we’ll see! 

33 and rain is so last year.  31 and non-freezing rain is the new threshold of winter storm pain.

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HRRR is so close to a nice period of snow tonight around Baltimore. Looks like snow for maybe a couple hours verbatim.

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Radar still looking stronger on the southern piece. Lots of storms in the northern GOM. As @showmethesnow stated earlier, we need that stronger south piece to get our coastal to form sooner. So far looks good I think? I’m watching that piece throughout today...between brewery visits. Oy. :lol:

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Just now, Scraff said:

Radar still looking stronger on the southern piece. Lots of storms in the northern GOM. As @showmethesnow stated earlier, we need that stronger south piece to get our coastal to form sooner. So far looks good I think? I’m watching that piece throughout today...between brewery visits. Oy. :lol:

Dam, at some point I am going to have to go on a pub crawl with you.

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I know you guys are going to hate me, but I'm actually rooting for the cold rain in Baltimore City tonight. I have plans that I really don't want to get cancelled.  Snow/ice would seriously screw it up, rain would be okay. All in on the Sunday potential lol. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Dam, at some point I am going to have to go on a pub crawl with you.

Brewery visits today are work related. Sort of. But anytime! Love to have a forum meet up one day at Hysteria Brewing too. I can definitely arrange it all. :)

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Just now, Steve25 said:

I know you guys are going to hate me, but I'm actually rooting for the cold rain in Baltimore City tonight. I have plans that I really don't want to get cancelled.  Snow/ice would seriously screw it up, rain would be okay. All in on the Sunday potential lol. 

Thanks for the update

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Hmmm....thinking a drive up towards camp david and then to Gettysburg may be in the works for tomorrow morning.

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11 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I know you guys are going to hate me, but I'm actually rooting for the cold rain in Baltimore City tonight. I have plans that I really don't want to get cancelled.  Snow/ice would seriously screw it up, rain would be okay. All in on the Sunday potential lol. 

1) Most here don't care about your plans.

2) Anything that falls tonight should have no impact on your plans.

3) Driving in the snow/ice really isn't that hard if you a) go slow and b) pay attention.

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it's really worth noting that the  NAM and NAM3 10:1 maps show accumulation overnight for much of the I-95 corridor, even though the p-type is mostly rain.     That means that the microphysics inside the model are cranking out some sleet for sure, even though the p-type shows rain due to the p-type being computed outside out the model purely based on the thermodynamic profile.    Don't take the accumulation numbers literally, as a 10:1 ratio obviously shouldn't apply to sleet, but the fact that it's non-zero is telling us that the model has at least some frozen falling in a profile that is so close to supporting more frozen, and it supports the idea that it wouldn't take much cooling to be a much bigger deal.

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Sometimes it's the surprises that are the most fun...I'm fairly certain I am not quite far enough NW for this but it sure is closer than I thought it could be....in fact a couple of days ago I basically had no clue that this was an actual thing

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

it's really worth noting that the  NAM and NAM3 10:1 maps show accumulation overnight for much of the I-95 corridor, even though the p-type is mostly rain.     That means that the microphysics inside the model are cranking out some sleet for sure, even though the p-type shows rain due to the p-type being computed outside out the model purely based on the thermodynamic profile.    Don't take the accumulation numbers literally, as a 10:1 ratio obviously shouldn't apply to sleet, but the fact that it's non-zero is telling us that the model has at least some frozen falling in a profile that is so close to supporting more frozen, and it supports the idea that it wouldn't take much cooling to be a much bigger deal.

Great analysis.  Giving us weenies a ray of hope too!

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Great analysis.  Giving us weenies a ray of hope too!

im just hoping for sleet. minimal cold rain. pretty cool to watch this come from nothing in the last 2 days or so

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3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

im just hoping for sleet. minimal cold rain. pretty cool to watch this come from nothing in the last 2 days or so

Yea I’ll take any kind of frozen over 33 and soaking rain (which is probably what we will get). But sometimes when u get strong dynamics with a system like this a surprise can happen.  Probably a 1-10 chance down our way. But the DC north and west crowd is probably more 50-50

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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Yea I’ll take any kind of frozen over 33 and soaking rain (which is probably what we will get). But sometimes when u get strong dynamics with a system like this a surprise can happen.  Probably a 1-10 chance down our way. But the DC north and west crowd is probably more 50-50

Route 28 will be the cutoff for frozen lol.  Just kidding.  I suck as bad as you guys but it wont stop me from drinking 90 Min IPA and pretending to hear pingers and see mangled flakes when I know its just rain.  

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51 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Route 28 will be the cutoff for frozen lol.  Just kidding.  I suck as bad as you guys but it wont stop me from drinking 90 Min IPA and pretending to hear pingers and see mangled flakes when I know its just rain.  

If you drink 120 Min, you’ll see snow for sure. :P

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3 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'm going with obs of "ripping" and "getting crushed" from losetoa6, showme, psu, and Sparky while the rest of us ignore the thread.

Well this will be the first storm in a while like that... sometimes it's like that all winter.  Was just talking with Bob a couple weeks ago how March can be the great equalizer up here for snowfall...that of all the months March is probably the one with the greatest disparity of typical snowfall between the urban corridor and my area.  March is definitely still a prime climo snowfall month up here and has been my snowiest month quite often up here while in the cities it can snow and does snow...but its usually not as favorable as January/February and there can be a great spread in snowfall within storms between here and DC/Baltimore in March.  

That said...as long as it doesn't steal my snow...I am rooting for some super band to set up right over our area and dynamically cool the column enough that I am reading all the "OMG ITS RIPPING" reports from across the whole area tonight!

2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

And may possibly keep snowcover for over a week. With a couple chances again later next this could be one of the longest stretches for some to have at least 1 inch on the ground in march.

If this week works out... and we end up with solid snowcover for 7+ days and 3/4 accumulating snowfalls...it actually would save this winter IMO.  I have 2 criteria to make a winter a "win" for me personally.  Either a solid 7+ day period of solid snowcover and cold OR at least one major 10"+ snowstorm.   I am not picky about when that storm or "winter" period comes.   Last year the March storm saved the season for me.  This year maybe a string of storms and snowcover does.  Of course I would rather it happen earlier in the year...get it out of the way and less stress "chasing" it the rest of the year.   But in hindsight I don't care if it happens in April so long as it happens.  

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