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Friday Night Coastal March 1/2 disco and obs


showmethesnow
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9 minutes ago, Amped said:

NAM was the only model that had snow for me last night.  Now just about every model has a mix or snow for Frederick county.

NAM has been on it for the coastal.  It's not an awful model if used knowing it's biases. Like deviding by 4 with its snow output...lol

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'm ironical like that. :lol:

1) I'm tiring of all the supercooled rain we've had this winter

2) I need an extended period of sunshine for once

3) Little one isn't letting us sleep

If the lady and I could get a solid night's sleep for a few days while also enjoying some relatively warm sunshine during that period, then I'd be 90% less cranky!

ahhh, gotcha. well i hope the little one sleeps better and you aren't as cranky! hugs, friend. 

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The 18z did unfortunately. It cut way back. Few hours of sleet.

That's just because rates weren't as crazy as 17z. If we get heavy precip it'll mix and in places change over to snow tonight north and west of 95. 

18z hrrr radar depiction at the start of it's run looks like major weak sauce compared to what is actually occurring at the surface right now. 

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6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

That's just because rates weren't as crazy as 17z. If we get heavy precip it'll mix and in places change over to snow tonight north and west of 95. 

18z hrrr radar depiction at the start of it's run looks like major weak sauce compared to what is actually occurring at the surface right now. 

Yeah I'm sure it will continue to fluctuate run to run. Also, it's pretty much on its own right now in terms of wintry precip around 95 anyway unless we see the next NAM run move toward that.

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13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I'm sure it will continue to fluctuate run to run. Also, it's pretty much on its own right now in terms of wintry precip around 95 anyway unless we see the next NAM run move toward that.

Yeah, maybe one of the red taggers could chime in here but given the current 925 mb and 850 mb temps and surface temps around 33-34, I'd think areas north west of dc and 95 have a good chance at mixing tonight especially if precip is heavy. Take a degree away from the sun going down and then another with the heavy precip mixing some cold down and it could get interesting. 

 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Well the 18z NAM snow map on TT FWIW shifted eastward comparing 9 hrs on 18z to 15 hrs on 12z... probably not much but still the movement is evident on the map

Yes, i know it includes sleet as well 

Yeah, weird how it includes snow totals even east of 95 where it's radar shot shows just rain. Must be a lot of sleet. I'm fine with pingers all night. 

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56 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Well sort of, the axis is a little bit askew.  It needs to be tilted more from your area to the northeast quadrant of Carroll to be a true Parr's Ridge Special.

Yea, I see what you mean.... especially after I put on my glasses lol

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23 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Yeah, maybe one of the red taggers could chime in here but given the current 925 mb and 850 mb temps and surface temps around 33-34, I'd think areas north west of dc and 95 have a good chance at mixing tonight especially if precip is heavy. Take a degree away from the sun going down and then another with the heavy precip mixing some cold down and it could get interesting. 

 

925mb.gif

850mb.gif

Can you keep posting these or send a link on where to see them?

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks very rate dependent for anyone south of the M/D line tonight. Root for some heavy precip and you may get some white meteors. Light stuff will just be rain. 

but you said jackpotville would catch up fast tonight and sun/monday. white rain does me no good, friend!

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