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March Discobs 2019


George BM
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The weather isn’t going to be fun, but it is an interesting low pressure development and track that’ll drench us tonight and tomorrow.

I love any kind of storm. I'm always interested to see how things pan out. It's fun. 

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12 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Anyone think the mountain tops around 4K feet in Shenandoah could score a heavy wet snow?

I could see the high ground from Jonjon’s place down to Elkins picking up a bit of snow accumulation late tomorrow night into Friday morning.  Not sure that rates will be sufficient by then to overcome the marginal surface temps for much more than an inch or two.

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6 hours ago, Sparky said:

Love a good coastal.

 

34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Same here ...rain or snow ...love tracking them and sure beats tracking partly sunny and 65 for days on end . Looks like most guidance paints 2 to as much as 3" up our way tomorrow 

I agree. Everyone gets caught up in wanting snow with coastal storms but I will take them any way I can get them. At least it is exciting weather. Honestly, sometimes all liquid precipitation coastal storms can be better then all frozen ones.

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Ah yes, the flood watch has made its reappearance 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
853 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-505-506-210900-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.190321T1000Z-190322T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore,
Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt,
Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
853 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick
  MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, and
  Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In northern
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun,
  Fairfax, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Western
  Loudoun.

* From 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening

* A widespread soaking rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected. Isolated
  amounts of around 3 inches are possible. The steadiest rain is
  expected Thursday morning through mid Thursday afternoon, with
  residual runoff possibly persisting into Thursday evening.

* These rainfall amounts may cause small streams and creeks to go
  out of their banks, as well as cause flooding of low-lying,
  urban and poor drainage areas.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
856 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clouds continue to gradually lower and thicken tonight ahead of
low pressure developing over the eastern Carolinas. Intermittent
light rain already encroaching on southern Maryland as of early
this evening, and rain is expected to expand quickly northward
while increasing in intensity after midnight (mainly east of
Interstate 81). Some moderately heavy rain is likely by daybreak
between the Blue Ridge and Interstate 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
There is a decent chance this system will be an "overperformer"
when it comes to precipitation amounts. Strong height falls with
an approaching negatively-tilled mid/upper trough, attendant
mid and upper jet/PVA, and strong low-level moisture flux all
point to an area of moderately heavy rain from Thursday morning
the mid Thursday afternoon across northern Virginia and central
Maryland (mainly between the Blue Ridge and I-95). In addition,
mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will contribute to
embedded convective elements/heavier rainfall rates (possibly
1/2 inch per hour). A few rumbles of thunder are possible as
well given all the strong forcing in place, despite low CAPE
values (less than 200 J/kg).
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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
856 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clouds continue to gradually lower and thicken tonight ahead of
low pressure developing over the eastern Carolinas. Intermittent
light rain already encroaching on southern Maryland as of early
this evening, and rain is expected to expand quickly northward
while increasing in intensity after midnight (mainly east of
Interstate 81). Some moderately heavy rain is likely by daybreak
between the Blue Ridge and Interstate 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
There is a decent chance this system will be an "overperformer"
when it comes to precipitation amounts. Strong height falls with
an approaching negatively-tilled mid/upper trough, attendant
mid and upper jet/PVA, and strong low-level moisture flux all
point to an area of moderately heavy rain from Thursday morning
the mid Thursday afternoon across northern Virginia and central
Maryland (mainly between the Blue Ridge and I-95). In addition,
mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will contribute to
embedded convective elements/heavier rainfall rates (possibly
1/2 inch per hour). A few rumbles of thunder are possible as
well given all the strong forcing in place, despite low CAPE
values (less than 200 J/kg).

Now if we just pretend that it's snow and the few rumbles of thunder verify......

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Last night's models called for 1.5". All pretty much in agreement. 

Started out with .16 this am.  The radar seemed to show horizontal rain blobs coming up this am. Not training stuff, yet. Just now, the yellows seem to dissipate when they get close to the metro area. 

We'll see how the models do.

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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea.. Pretty wicked coastal . Actually 3k tries to change briefly the Catoctins over to wet snow later tonight lol. For a brief period it actually crashes 850s here with temps around 36-38 . Rogue wet snowflake maybe in the cards  :weenie:

H5 actually is even more impressive with the 12z suite so far .

40 degrees with a steady cold rain in the car in Manassas! Searching in vain for a rogue ping of sleet hitting the windshield. 

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3 hours ago, high risk said:

Friday afternoon could be a bit fun as the strong vort approaches.     Convective showers are likely, and with very steep lapse rates, it looks like a few folks could see some lightning.

Also looks graupely with,dare I say, some graupely snow mix in with the most intense showers?...... Or is my weenie mode getting carried away again?

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