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tiger_deF

NE snow event March 4th

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take em up, now.

Not sure if 6-10'' is a more reasonable way to go or something as extreme as 8-12''. I guess in the end there really isn't that much of a different between the two ranges. I would think (and I think Scott mentioned this), but totals should be rather uniform. I guess it's just whether or not that's like 6-8'' or like 10-12'' lol

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ratios might counter their precip there.  Heavy dense stuff for sure   

Someone further up and in might get more snow from less water

Totally agree... I think we see multiple relative jack areas (and by that I mean 8-10 vs. 6-8, and maybe spot 10-12 in the former):

PYM to south shore area simply by QPF dumpage of heavy wet

Another further northwest where best fronto and better SLRs overlap

But by virtue of this moving pretty quickly, it's a relatively uniform thumpage

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure if 6-10'' is a more reasonable way to go or something as extreme as 8-12''. I guess in the end there really isn't that much of a different between the two ranges. I would think (and I think Scott mentioned this), but totals should be rather uniform. I guess it's just whether or not that's like 6-8'' or like 10-12'' lol

6-10. Too fast of a mover to go overboard.

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9 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had?

Maybe Feb 2010? There were also two storms last March that were supposed to give me 15+", but I got 2" and a dusting respectively. Sucked.

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Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

6-10. Too fast of a mover to go overboard.

Probably will depend on what kind of rates we can achieve (like Will mentioned earlier). HRRR would suggest 2-3'' per hour rates. That happens for a good 2-3 hours (which it sort of suggests) 8-10' is a solid bet. 

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18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Go to work Monday CT peeps. No snowday fo you. Thing is done by 5am.

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

That was like last Wednesday or Thursday I thInk but euro overdoing amplitude in medium range is nothing new.

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Regarding “12-16”.  ALERT!!  :tomato: Ray Stated IF this map verified (from earlier yesterday), with Northern RI getting 16”+, he.... 

 

“I will EAT your Accordion and buy you a new one.”  

 

FYI to all.  Mike Felger 98.5 Ball Gag in Packer shorts style.  :cory::tomato:  

DA36BB91-E47D-4811-BDE3-A778DB9D0D1B.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

Impossible to recall through the layers of serotonin and dopamine, half kidding... 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. 

I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed.  But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents.  I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above.  It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z.  

The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct.  

 

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2 hours ago, Greg said:

You were never getting 12" down there with those temps regardless of the brunt of precipitation. Your BL issues were prevalent.

I never thought I'd get 4 inches, let alone 12.

I would expect an inch of slop.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z.  

The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct.  

 

I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics.  It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows.

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21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Really no incentive not to call it, a lot of districts in CT including my kids' school have built-in snow days and they sure as heck haven't burned through them this year.

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Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics.  It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows.

Yeah to me the system looks identical as it did days ago, just coming out of the firehose at a different angle.  Though the solutions a few days ago likely had larger max amounts as the Euro was advertising the "snow zone" north of the low as being widespread 1-1.5" QPF.  

Its good to see so many folks in the coastal regions south of the mountains getting a solid event though after getting shut out in Dec/Jan/Feb.  

Bookend winter.  Nov and Mar.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS matches app. 

index.png

Good lord im teetering on the edge of the r/s line. This is my last chance for snow. Good luck weenies! Im moving on to tornadoes

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4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time

They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40.  Cirrus just starting to creep in now.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS matches app. 

index.png

DAMMIT GINXY!  That site has a warning about posting those images. :lol: 

Better EPS look than 00z, broader strokes on the 6+ there.  A true I-95 storm.

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2 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40.  Cirrus just starting to creep in now.

my bad, didn't refresh from the morning update

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Funny how bad the AccuWeather snow prediction is, two events ago they predicted 3-5 when we got a dusting, 4-6 when we got an inch and now they predict 2-4 right near the jack zone of the storm

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54 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had?

3/19/56.  An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet.  I was in 3rd grade.  Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details.

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