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tiger_deF

NE snow event March 4th

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nah it's gonna shred out into an advisory event. 

Haha.  

Altho I argue the greater bust potential is down in this pattern ... this next one is more potent overall. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still ... ?

Not sure I concur...  No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ...  It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin'

I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one.  I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger.  I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. 

We'll see

6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you.  The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... 

In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there.

The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. 

Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true.  Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. 

Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor.  It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are.  Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really.  The "correction vector" is less in this flow...

Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. 

I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. 

Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth.

I don't think anyone anyone dismissed the cons, and it was pretty universally considered to be a difficult forecast. I'm not sure what your point is. "Screwed" refers to the fact that it had potential to be better, which was reflected by some of the most skilled guidance at very short lead times. All I mean by screwed.

I made a call and it was wrong....simple as that. I understand why some weren't as optimisitc, and they were ultimately right.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The big question is, will you get enough sleep tonight to prevent an angry howl if 0z guidance makes a noise tick se?

Lol C’mon...I needed to melt. It felt good too. Me and Ray double teaming it last night.  

 

Ill keep the howling down tonight, even if it goes to crap.  Im calm and relieved now.  

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hence ... narrower impact. 

Spring is a long , long, long way away . That warm sun tickling the hairs on the tip of your nose. That’s a long long way out there 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

People should read this a few times 

seriously the first and second paragraph 

Also , Stronger, amped systems this year cut. Theyve favored NNE obviously as they are closer to the cold source and the meager secondary developments have locked in the colder air better there 

weaker systems slide south 

that’s 90-95 percent of our systems this year 

the 1 that hit D.C keeps getting referenced as “see some go north some go south “ that was a outlier 

I’ve said my peace on this , promise folks 

Weren't you posting about how you were excited for a pattern for the first time all season not too long ago?

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12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system.  :whistle:

I’m hoping he got a few inches 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before.

It's already compressed in my opinion... just not down there lol.  

I wouldn't worry the late NW ticks...this just feels like it holds or sneaks a little more SE. H5 just doesn't have that amp look...it's just ripping west to east.  

I-84 jackpot...BDL to BOS.

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Spring is a long , long, long way away . That warm sun tickling the hairs on the tip of your nose. That’s a long long way out there 

 

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1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said:

I’m done for the season, signing out

Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. 

Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes.  Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m hoping he got a few inches 

NAM rolling, will it trend foe or friend? 

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. 

Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes.  Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area

Are you not familiar with Money Pit Mike?  He can tell you tales of woe from thew Western elevations. Seriously though, sure the valley gets less snow than the hills but W MA in general be it 200" or 2000' has had some winter qpf issues over the years.

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19 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system.  :whistle:

My parents had 2 or 3 inches in Orleans this morning!!!! Woootwoooot

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weren't you posting about how you were excited for a pattern for the first time all season not too long ago?

Yes I was when I believed there was a PNA ridge 

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That was a pretty decent EURO bust in the last 24 hours.  I mean it had like 1.25-1.5" QPF from Berks to LCI to LEW at 12z yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was a pretty decent EURO bust in the last 24 hours.  I mean it had like 1.25-1.5" QPF from Berks to LCI to LEW at 12z yesterday.

Big time 

maybe it’s finally settled 36 hours out but i see a bit more SE shifts bc of the H5 look 

but I like the same corridor you do right now say DXR to BOS 

 

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Are you not familiar with Money Pit Mike?  He can tell you tales of woe from thew Western elevations. Seriously though, sure the valley gets less snow than the hills but W MA in general be it 200" or 2000' has had some winter qpf issues over the years.

No QPF issues this season ;)

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2 hours ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

I think Ross Poirot would say that there is a "giant sucking' sound" coming from tomorrow night.

I wonder what percentage of this board have no idea what you're talking about.  :)

 

39 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system.  :whistle:

You'll need to wait a while.  He's still out shoveling.

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oops you did it again.

Fortunately I’ll give you a break because of your age and not being able to comprehend the difference that nick posted a 24 hour precip map and yours was a 72 hour map from 0z Thursday . —Where your only comment was take 2 off for the cape. (Not the entire sne area). When I’m wrong I say I am. If you said take .2 off for the entire region I wouldn’t have said a word.

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

Lol 20 days would be the 15th ,spring starts the 20th early spring being 5 days. He actually has said Met winter is correct and Morch too1

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before.

I mean the spread is actually still to the north of mean low positions, so that’s where our bust potential probably lies. Now that could still mean mix and crappy amounts for SE MA...

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I wonder what percentage of this board have no idea what you're talking about.  :)

Probably not a large number remember Ross's run for president.  Anywho - at least it looks like the 18Z Nam has not given up any ground for SNE.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fortunately I’ll give you a break because of your age and not being able to comprehend the difference that nick posted a 24 hour precip map and yours was a 72 hour map from 6z Thursday . —Where your only comment was take 2 off for the cape. (Not the entire sne area). When I’m wrong I say I am.

You were wrong

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