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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What are your thoughts for ASH and ORH?  5-6”?

 

I see a line  DXR to Tolland to  ORH to N shore mass points SE with best shot of 6”+ at this time given where I anticipate models in 24 hrs . 

I would not be surprised if this “line shifted 25 miles further south 

and I would be shocked if it shifted N of S NH but pleasantly surprised 

 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My take away point is that models are struggling mightily and things will tend to shift south .

Its actually been hard for me to be “negative “ this winter but i told myself I would remain as unbiased as I could be storm after storm 

i really would love to see a large snowstorm. I would trade 350$ for 2 KU’s for Boston if it put them over 80” without hesitation .

I see DXR to Tolland to  ORH to N shore mass points SE with best shot of 6”+ at this time given where I anticipate models in 24 hrs . 

 

Agree on all points.  Models have def overdone things up until the final hours on most of these events.  Your “negativity” is actually reality...   Weenie goggles are useless

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Told my daughter last week she would likely extend school vacation on Monday. Last night made me second guess but feeling a little better today. Do we need to get today's system out of the way for models to hone in on the likely track or have they basically figured that out?

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 I'm not really sure what you are looking at or what point you are trying to make...this isn't a KU. It never has been. 

But this isn't exactly flat....fast flow? Sure. Zonal? Not so much...it's pretty classic actually for a good quick hitter...vortmax riding up the east side of the longwave trough....if you think it's going to whiff, that's fine. Maybe it trends that way...but I don't see it right now.  

 

 

IMG_2563.PNG

@STILL N OF PIKE It sounds nice to tie it up in a nice, neat bow and attribute it to the flow being too progressive (ok) and zonal (no), in then in the same breath mock those attributing the meteorological misfortune to some bad luck. Bit of hypocrisy because what deciding factor do you think we are at the mercy of with no blocking in a progressive flow with an "unmanned firehose".....the answer is luck. People just need a "smoking gun" and an object to project there frustration, so "luck" doesn't cut it, but it doesn't make it less valid.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It sounds nice to tie it up in a nice, neat bow and attribute it to the flow being too progressive (ok) and zonal (no), in then in the same breath mock those attributing the meteorological misfortune to some bad luck. Bit of hypocrisy because what deciding factor do you think we are at the mercy of with no blocking in a progressive flow with an "unmanned firehose".....the answer is luck.

I've given up on the debate that there's some inherent identifying feature of the longwave pattern that shows NNE favorable (except when it's not and D.C. gets hit) for now...maybe we can revisit it after the season. 

 

But this storm is pretty favorable for SNE right now. I'm under no illusion that it can't change but there's no reason to expect a sudden shift from an objective standpoint. It's actually stabilized a bit over the past couple cycles. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I've given up on the debate that there's some inherent identifying feature of the longwave pattern that shows NNE favorable (except when it's not and D.C. gets hit) for now...maybe we can revisit it after the season. 

 

But this storm is pretty favorable for SNE right now. I'm under no illusion that it can't change but there's no reason to expect a sudden shift from an objective standpoint. It's actually stabilized a bit over the past couple cycles. 

That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that.

LOL, you want to talk about luck....    :lol:

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