ma blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts and some things I debated/considered: - how far back west of Worcester to push 8+ amounts... lots of evidence this is trending more amped NW, + better SLRs there, so this is more NW of the jack zone on Euro/RGEM - is there potential for > 12"... tough given quick hitter, but I would put that in south coast to PVD to NW CT area - other mesoscale features: I posted about CF enhancement earlier but this moves too quickly to really set up and have discernible impact great map and def agree with it .. per usual have enjoyed your posts over the past couple days (last storm as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Where do you see a little exhaust potential lets liven this thread up during the dead time obviously his own backyard, you can hear it in his posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Greg said: 21Z HRRR still looks great so far. It actually weenied out again after backing off slightly at 20z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 There must be some excellent snow growth on the NW side of the precip shield because I'm impressed with all the half mile vis obs covering so much of central and W PA despite radar returns in the 20dbz range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There must be some excellent snow growth on the NW side of the precip shield because I'm impressed with all the half mile vis obs covering so much of central and W PA despite radar returns in the 20dbz range. Any snowfall calls you’d care to share for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It actually weenied out again after backing off slightly at 20z. LOL- Like it has been said, not meaningful until 6 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: LOL- Like it has been said, not meaningful until 6 hrs out. Balogne, you can pick up things from it. Don't take it verbatim but if it shows a shredded mess, I don't ignore it. I'm very pleased that it doesn't show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It actually weenied out again after backing off slightly at 20z. In our snowfall events this season, seeing the HRRR jacked has played out well. I loved seeing that thing show 1-1.5" QPF ahead of a couple storms because it's usually the voice of reason. It's often that model that shows .6" when the NAM and RGEM show 1.2"....so getting the HRRR jacked on QPF is definitely a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Looks like rpm sobered up a tad, but still sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any snowfall calls you’d care to share for SNE? I think the box map is pretty solid. I don't see anything egregious I'd change. There could be some higher amounts than 12" in a lucky band if snowgrowth is premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like rpm sobered up a tad, but still sweet. It realized it was dinner time and had to make a competent appearance at the table. Congrats ginxy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There must be some excellent snow growth on the NW side of the precip shield because I'm impressed with all the half mile vis obs covering so much of central and W PA despite radar returns in the 20dbz range. This would explain that lol. Pretty sick sounding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It realized it was dinner time and had to make a competent appearance at the table. Congrats ginxy We need it to have a double after dinner! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: obviously his own backyard, you can hear it in his posts That won’t really generate any convo , nobody lives up there. I meant NW of the i-95 fronto band 9z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That won’t really generate any convo , nobody lives up there. I meant NW of the i-95 fronto band 9z to 12z But they have chickens. I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: great map and def agree with it .. per usual have enjoyed your posts over the past couple days (last storm as well) 17 minutes ago, ScituateWX said: You might be the most level headed person in the forum Thanks guys, but I'm nowhere near the same league as some of the posters here. Regarding this storm, you'll remember I was initially raising some caution flags given some similarities to Fri/Sat (my map for that busted spectacularly). But a deeper trough and more robust vorticity will overcome those negatives, and only with last night's guidance trends did I feel more confident this would be a big hit. Upstream obs in Philly thread look on track. There will invariably be surprises to nowcast. And now to tend to some real life before (perhaps the best event of the season) starts... I'll be back tonight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Do we know the location of the low pressure? And is it as low as was modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Do we know the location of the low pressure? And is it as low as was modeled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Thanks guys, but I'm nowhere near the same league as some of the posters here. Regarding this storm, you'll remember I was initially raising some caution flags given some similarities to Fri/Sat (my map for that busted spectacularly). But a deeper trough and more robust vorticity will overcome those negatives, and only with last night's guidance trends did I feel more confident this would be a big hit. Upstream obs in Philly thread look on track. There will invariably be surprises to nowcast. And now to tend to some real life before (perhaps the best event of the season) starts... I'll be back tonight No leading shortwave, gives it room to do its thing. A leading shortwave out in front of the main show ALWAYS mucks things up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Thompson, GA airport, a bit west of Augusta, just reported 0.97" of rain for the last hour. That is some convection down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This would explain that lol. Pretty sick sounding Best lift is below and above the DGZ there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, JC-CT said: But they have chickens. I've heard. Damn boy. 4 months of hibernating and you wake up swinging. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Best lift is below and above the DGZ there. Yeah pretty narrow DGZ in that sounding. No JSpin Special there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Best lift is below and above the DGZ there. Can’t you still get heavy snow and good rates/size without having best lift within the DGZ? Like aren’t there cases (like when you have WAA or strong llvl fronto) that can compensate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Damn boy. 4 months of hibernating and you wake up swinging. Must be a snowstorm in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Can’t you still get heavy snow and good rates/size without having best lift within the DGZ? Like aren’t there cases (like when you have WAA or strong llvl fronto) that can compensate? Sure. Most of the time we get +SN with average ratios. But when you said "sick sounding" I thought you were referring to a deep DGZ with big omega crosshaired through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Must be a snowstorm in CT. Help a guy get donations for his friends and then he takes a shot at my barred rocks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This is a crosshair sig on a sounding...ORH sounding on the 18z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Help a guy get donations for his friends and then he takes a shot at my barred rocks. Hey now, that meant the world to me. Can't say enough kind words to this whole community and to you personally. And I had to look up what barred rocks were. Turns out they are chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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