BuildingScienceWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Wowzers Wiz, that's just about MBY... Yes please. Do you think surface temps will be 32 or is that likely overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Past 2 runs of HRRR have been trending significantly less deep with the low, anyone noticed? Plus still moving NW 19z and 20z has a 5 mb difference which is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, Greg said: Go with the HRRR right now and not the REGGIE. The HRRR is better at this time range for disecting these. Absolutely false. HRR out in the extended range (past 6 hours) typically is much less reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Quote I think there is a chance this overperforms for those of us out on the edge here. That satellite is really impressive. A coincidence that we are taking about busts from the past today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: Doubt I'll ever have a bust better than April 1982. Late evening on 4/6, CAR added flurries to its cloudy, cold, windy forecast; the storm pounding NYC to BOS progged for OTS. Less than 3 hours later we had SN+. My total in Ft. Kent was a massively windblown (thus near impossible to measure) 17" - a driveway drift left our black Chevette with about 20 square inches showing. CAR recorded 26.3", at the time their biggest snowfall ever, though it's been bumped to 3rd by the March 1984 dump and the post-Christmas stalled system of 2005. Tomorrow's event - maybe 3", barely avoiding 3 whiffs in 4 days. However, looks like our snowpack stays tall well into next week, maybe beyond. Depending on who you listened to, 2/6/1978 had a forecast of 3-6"... 40"+ later IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ray needs to up all areas 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: A few surprises are in store for some. Good luck figuring out who scores 10" when they expected 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ray needs to up all areas 2-4” His map gave me a headache... All those arrows pointing and intersecting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 HRRR can swing more than Kevin after two Tzimas. I wouldn’t worry about little nuances from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: HRRR can swing more than Kevin after two Tzimas. I wouldn’t worry about little nuances from run to run. Is that Russian for Zima? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Absolutely false. HRR out in the extended range (past 6 hours) typically is much less reliable. But the HRRR gives us more snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Who doesn't love a good 8 feet of snow on a Monday morning My MS affected hand's appolgize for the typing mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: But the HRRR gives us more snow... It's high, it's resolution, it's refresh, but it's stale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR can swing more than Kevin after two Tzimas. I wouldn’t worry about little nuances from run to run. Drunk ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Sweet that people in alabama are losing property and possible lives.. might lead to two more inches of snow here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: My MS affected hand's appolgize. That's more deflating than a football after the Patriots gain possession. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: His map gave me a headache... All those arrows pointing and intersecting... He’s never been able to correct the arrow vector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Nice. Take your cursor and continue the vector of that and you can see nicely where things are pointing toward. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Fooking auto correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: Sweet that people in alabama are losing property and possible lives.. might lead to two more inches of snow here You might be on the wrong bulletin board, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: Sweet that people in alabama are losing property and possible lives.. might lead to two more inches of snow here #Everyinchmatters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Graupler said: Sweet that people in alabama are losing property and possible lives.. might lead to two more inches of snow here Just strap on those tights and watch the snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Absolutely false. HRR out in the extended range (past 6 hours) typically is much less reliable. I wouldn't trust the Reggie either with all the changes happening now. Just my opinion and experience from the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: I wouldn't trust the Reggie either with all the changes happening now. Just my opinion and experience from the past. Well yes that’s true. But it’s easier to not refresh every hour....lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: His map gave me a headache... All those arrows pointing and intersecting... It was pretty straight forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, The Graupler said: Sweet that people in alabama are losing property and possible lives.. might lead to two more inches of snow here That was happening regardless of it snowing or not here. Enjoy the weather it's the only weather you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 My thoughts and some things I debated/considered: - how far back west of Worcester to push 8+ amounts... lots of evidence this is trending more amped NW, + better SLRs there, so this is more NW of the jack zone on Euro/RGEM - is there potential for > 12"... tough given quick hitter, but I would put that in south coast to PVD to NW CT area - other mesoscale features: I posted about CF enhancement earlier but this moves too quickly to really set up and have discernible impact 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I didn't really hit on the cf, which is a fetish of mine....but its moving so fast, dnt think its a big deal. Agree, I had posted about that earlier but it's subtle and this moves to quickly for any discernible impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just strap on those tights and watch the snowfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, tamarack said: Doubt I'll ever have a bust better than April 1982. Late evening on 4/6, CAR added flurries to its cloudy, cold, windy forecast; the storm pounding NYC to BOS progged for OTS. Less than 3 hours later we had SN+. My total in Ft. Kent was a massively windblown (thus near impossible to measure) 17" - a driveway drift left our black Chevette with about 20 square inches showing. CAR recorded 26.3", at the time their biggest snowfall ever, though it's been bumped to 3rd by the March 1984 dump and the post-Christmas stalled system of 2005. Tomorrow's event - maybe 3", barely avoiding 3 whiffs in 4 days. However, looks like our snowpack stays tall well into next week, maybe beyond. My biggest bust was back in February, 1969, also known as the 100 hour storm. The route 128 belt had between 25-40", with a forecast of about a foot or so and not a 4-day storm. Of course there was no effective model guidance back in those days, and satellite images were relied on much more. This picture shows that it wasn't just the Blizzard of 1978 that made a mess of route 128. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1969b.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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