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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Go to work Monday CT peeps. No snowday fo you. Thing is done by 5am.

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

That was like last Wednesday or Thursday I thInk but euro overdoing amplitude in medium range is nothing new.

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. 

I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed.  But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents.  I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above.  It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z.  

The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct.  

 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z.  

The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct.  

 

I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics.  It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows.

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21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Really no incentive not to call it, a lot of districts in CT including my kids' school have built-in snow days and they sure as heck haven't burned through them this year.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics.  It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows.

Yeah to me the system looks identical as it did days ago, just coming out of the firehose at a different angle.  Though the solutions a few days ago likely had larger max amounts as the Euro was advertising the "snow zone" north of the low as being widespread 1-1.5" QPF.  

Its good to see so many folks in the coastal regions south of the mountains getting a solid event though after getting shut out in Dec/Jan/Feb.  

Bookend winter.  Nov and Mar.

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54 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had?

3/19/56.  An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet.  I was in 3rd grade.  Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details.

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1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Anyone have an idea why Upton has the Winter Storm Warning in effect already for this area?  Still blue sky, full sunshine and 40 degrees here.  Radar is still showing precip back in PA.  I could see a Watch until 6pm or so and then change to Warning.

That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

3/19/56.  An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet.  I was in 3rd grade.  Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details.

Mine is probably 12/23/97....1-3" forecast and we got 18". 12/11-12/92 was really bad too....the big storm part was forecast well but they thought mostly rain...3-6" was forecast and we got almost 3 feet. Lol. 

The 2/7/03 storm I recall had advisories out for like 3-5/4-6 and a stripe just south of BOS back into RI had 12-18" of fluff. BOS itself was maybe just under a foot. If we were to get a positive bust in this storm, it would likely be of the fluff bomb variety like that '03 storm rather than a sheer QPF bust...someone goes 18 to 1 ratios in a band at 28-30F at 3"/hr or something for a while. 

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