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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It def does get tiresome having models cut back and cut back as we get closer in...   I mean, no one is going to die from having snow drop from 10”to 4”, but it is very very frustrating.    

But they are cutting back while increasing in other areas that would've seen rain.

TauntonBlizz is benefiting greatly from your loss :lol:.

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The only real significant difference in the NAM run besides convective differences is organization. Compared to the  18z suite the system is a liiiitle farther north, deeper,  more tightly wound, and has much more vorticity. New one first, old one last

 

If we get some nice tics north over the next few runs with the same organization (unlikely IMO) we could be back in weenie mode.namconus_ref_frzn_us_36.thumb.png.7a4c8f29ab091c132a8d6d0e1aba3eef.pnge vort. 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_38.png

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This really does have a little resemblance to the mess we had earlier today, particularly in how diffuse and piecemeal the vorticity is, and once again that may be confounding guidance. There's alot of scattered convection on the NAM that could also be robbing some inflow like today's system.

One key difference is that the trough is more developed... otherwise this too would be fading east. But I'm leaning southeast in my expectations. Basis for my initial thoughts I posted earlier: 6-10 jack in pike region or slightly southeast. I'm also guarded on how far northwest this impacts.

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Just now, tiger_deF said:

Let's all hope for a northwestward trend in the 00z suite of the GFS

 

knowing my predictions and the season the it's gonna have the low off of Florida isn't it...

Let's all not..but feel free.

I'm surprised I'm not at least under a watch, given the hellacious dump before any change to rain here. 

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Let's all not..but feel free.

I'm surprised I'm not at least under a watch, given the hellacious dump before any change to rain here. 

BOX playing it safe knowing they still have time to make adjustments up or down in watch areas and snow totals.12z models were still unclear on impacts for our area with the BL.  I’ll admit that it’s looks better now but we’ll need to see the rest of the 00z suite.

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Yes, a lot of red flags and I'm leaning conservative on this at the moment... fast mover, disorganized piecemeal vorticity, lots of convection out to sea that could disrupt inflow and/or tug this further east, 850/700 close late or only briefly (at least on most recent NAM)... as I posted above, the main thing this has going for it is that the trough is digging more (vs. today's system), but even that is far from great... things to watch.

I'm not at all snake-bitten... these are objective concerns to keep in mind.

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Ugh :facepalm:

These "upgrades" they give to the models don't do shit or just make the models worse it seems.

Happened with the NAM, with the Euro and now with the GFS. The FV3 is so bad, implementation is being pushed back yet again

Frustrating. Idk, maybe I'm just snake bitten with this year like Ray said. And I'm not even making forecasts!

I mean there is more to forecasting than New England. NWP continues to get better, year over year, even if it doesn't seem that way in your backyard.

And I can't believe I'm doing this but, the FV3 is an improvement over the GFS. My guess is that there was too much complaining about clown maps from the field and so implementation got delayed. Which says more about the forecasters than the models in my opinion.

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10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yes, a lot of red flags and I'm leaning conservative on this at the moment... fast mover, disorganized piecemeal vorticity, lots of convection out to sea that could disrupt inflow and/or tug this further east, 850/700 close late or only briefly (at least on most recent NAM)... as I posted above, the main thing this has going is that the trough is digging more (vs. today's system)... things to watch.

I'm not at all snake-bitten... these are objective concerns to keep in mind.

Probably the biggest take away from all this, That has me piqued for possibly a better outcome if we get that s/w to cooperate.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Probably the biggest take away from all this, That has me piqued for possibly a better outcome if we get that s/w to cooperate.

Better than Friday for sure... but not the best, and shortwave at the moment looks awfully like today, maybe more robust.

I'm shaking my head... our KU should have been Mar 6-7... all these attempts before H5 has properly set up are tripping over themselves

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You can really see how these high velocity patterns are very sensitive to subtle perturbations in terms of who gets what/where. Personally I expected a narrower impact but I'm just not sure how massive or less that will be. I wouldnt be shocked if somebody has thunder

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The 00z NAM looks like it may be a hair too high with heights in the base of the shortwave out west, but that could also be a function of being too slow at initialization.

Check those returns here, Going to end up pulling 1"+ of 25:1 fluff from the convergence from the ULL and the slp out to the east from today's system.............:lol:

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