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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's SE and weaker.

Coastalwx's melt really worked!  He managed to take this from 12"+ up here to his backyard.

IMG_2422.thumb.PNG.71298df86ccc5955c5c2c28c9c78800d.PNG

Something tells me that this will be the one storm that everyone is going to downplay, including the models and it will end up a huge positive bust.  

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

How bad were the models for today's system down there? What was the Jack amounts?, I did not follow that thread.

It was pretty ugly for the NAM, even 36 hours ago they were showing a big thump with 12+ all around

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How bad were the models for today's system down there? What was the jack amounts?, I did not follow that thread.

NAM actually did best if I recall correctly. The storm was stronger than expected and produced more precip as well. The NAM hinted at this, though it went a bit bonkers (shock, I know).  

 

EDIT : Top amounts were around 6-7"

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not the 24 hr maps, dropped .3 here, but it is weaker 

Yeah, Its weaker that's why its east, But Some need to remember to be careful what they wish for, A more amped system comes with more qpf but also comes with BL issues for the coast.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Euro mid levels don’t look great....nothing really closes off.  We’ll see.

I guess it gets going too late?

Weaker system, less qpf.

I'll believe it and the rest of the models at 12z tomorrow. Believe it or not, 24hrs out is still too much time for things to change these days

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Its weaker that's why its east, But Some need to remember to be careful what they wish for, A more amped system comes with more qpf but also comes with BL issues for the coast.

This has been a pretty clear trend for the Euro for 8 runs now (2 days)....I don't see the amp up close in with an open fast moving wave.  

Its not even that dynamic, doesn't seem like there will be much convection either to juice it up.  Just hope the event comes soon before it cuts off some more.  I mean the GFS has 0.3" QPF at ORH now.  This could certainly slip into 4-8" range for max amounts with a larger Advisory snow area.

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A mod should remove those maps before wither the poster or the bb gets in some hot water.

I mean I know you aren't supposed to post them but why you guys all up in arms?  We aren't supposed to post Wxbell or Weathermaps but they are posted all day long and mods never say anything.  

Ginxy and I just posted them but you guys freaked out over SV maps?

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean I know you aren't supposed to post them but why you guys all up in arms?  We aren't supposed to post Wxbell or Weathermaps but they are posted all day long and mods never say anything.  

Ginxy and I just posted them but you guys freaked out over SV maps?

That's because Maui allows them to be posted, And if you don't use SV and don't know there rules, Why are you questioning it? If Jerry and I say there not suppose to be posted, Then that should hold some weight.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean I know you aren't supposed to post them but why you guys all up in arms?  We aren't supposed to post Wxbell or Weathermaps but they are posted all day long and mods never say anything.  

Ginxy and I just posted them but you guys freaked out over SV maps?

Because Sv had the notice put up.  That suggests to me ECMWF sent them a notice about it.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Its weaker that's why its east, But Some need to remember to be careful what they wish for, A more amped system comes with more qpf but also comes with BL issues for the coast.

I would think that a stronger/ a little more amped system would bring good banding in that could overcome BL issues in this marginal temp set-up down here. If this is going to be a weaker system overall, forget about 10:1 ratios and it sticking that well. Then again, it's at night

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t know and doubt it would come to this.  But tiktock could have his account closed and I doubt an all volunteer bb wants to deal with any bs.

Would be quite an undertaking for them to come up with a figure of their damages  or even how they were damaged.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's because Maui allows them to be posted, And if you don't use SV and don't know there rules, Why are you questioning it? If Jerry and I say there not suppose to be posted, Then that should hold some weight.

Ok well the other sites have those notices too.  Was just curious if SV was on another level.  Basically any ECM maps posted here shouldn't be, but...

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s only the SV maps that I’m aware of that can’t be disseminated

Ha really?  That's awesome I thought I was being a rebel.  The map I posted even says on the map that I shouldn't share it lol.  In order to share you pay the next tier up.

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