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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh ok. Sounded from the tenor of all the posts that many were just assuming this will miss or he a scraper, etc...when in reality it looks pretty good. 

Confidence is obviously another thing...though I can't find any guidance that actually looks bad for most of SNE. This is a pretty good looking threat. 

Probably bed like 6-8"

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

How do you feel about Mondays system Will??

 

 I mean, everything just trends away to Sh*t within the last 24-36 Hours it seems this winter..save for November 15th.  That was a good system here(8.75”).  

That’s  what he’s  taking about. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s two days out.it has a limit.

Ya you’re right.  It’s juzt that everything just goes to hell the day before, so no confidence in anything at this point.  If the SE Trends stop now...we are looking good I agree.  Hope so.  Just one good one to end it...not too much to ask of winter..right?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree.... but did you see what guidace was like for Saturday at 36 hours out yesterday???

Different setup. The past performance also isn't predictive of the future performance here. 

 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s so different?

More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. 

None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. 

 

Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. 

None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. 

 

Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 

Ok!  Great points.  Makes sense.  Thank you for taking the time to explain. Always appreciated.

 

Hope the SE trend is over too.  

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. 

None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. 

 

Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 

I'm done betting this year lol

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That model sucks this year lol..

Yeah it really has.  The main problem I see is the flow is so fast and compressed you just don’t get a great CCB with the system as it passes most of this forum and certainly my subforum.  As a result the best snows will likely be whoever sees that initial area of snow breaking out ahead of the low 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it really has.  The main problem I see is the flow is so fast and compressed you just don’t get a great CCB with the system as it passes most of this forum and certainly my subforum.  As a result the best snows will likely be whoever sees that initial area of snow breaking out ahead of the low 

Yup.  Going bye bye just like today’s POS.  Man this pattern just won’t quit!!  

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. 

None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. 

 

Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 

Aw, you left out the WNE special on 2/16/10. :)

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