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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


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42 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

This map is completely deceiving for NYC/LI. Must be a ton of sleet.

Terribly deceiving. The NAM went way SE for tonight btw like you said before, it’s only 1-2 inches total for tonight/tomorrow. Here is the REAL depiction of the snowfall from that NAM run and it’s nowhere even close to that other bogus snowmap which includes sleet as snow, and you have to subtract 1-2 inches from this total because it includes tonight/tomorrow morning: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030118&fh=81

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21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is further east and so is the heavier precip

 

gfs_asnow24_neus_fh72_trend.gif

The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, baroclinic zone getting dragged way east

 
“The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk”
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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, barocoinic zone getting dragged way east

 
“The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk”

So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong?

You swore by it yesterday.

Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off

Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting

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6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong?

You swore by it yesterday.

Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off

Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting

Thank you! 

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So should most C/NNJ write this one off? ( I mean I have kinda written then winter off already, but I keep getting dragged back in, only to be mostly disappointed )

I don't think anyone can write this one off,,,,,,IMO its in a good spot for many and it would appear that it won't take a big shift one way or another to effect many areas .

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51 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong?

You swore by it yesterday.

Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off

Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting

He’s been doing this for years. Looks for everything that doesn’t produce snow 

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't think anyone can write this one off,,,,,,IMO its in a good spot for many and it would appear that it won't take a big shift one way or another to effect many areas .

When things move east that is bad for my area. Am west of the city. Only the Jan 2016 storm in recent years plastered us; every other one was a near miss, with us getting a few inches instead of double digits, at least every one of the big ones.

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8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So should most C/NNJ write this one off? ( I mean I have kinda written then winter off already, but I keep getting dragged back in, only to be mostly disappointed )

Southeast is what we want to avoid the change to rain. I doubt it would trend so far southeast that we miss out on significant snows.

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Still a rainstorm or what? 

Also, since when did the Euro start running off hours? I've been tracking weather for over fifteen years and hadn't realized this had happened until recently...

I'm not sure when 6Z and 18Z EURO runs started, but they are a thing. The operational run only goes to 90 hours or so.

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