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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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Who's got the Euro? I cancel my subscriptions after met winter ends, and the free sites are too slow and temporally coarse to see what's going on this close to go time. 

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Who's got the Euro? I cancel my subscriptions after met winter ends, and the free sites are too slow and temporally coarse to see what's going on this close to go time. 

Would also appreciate

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Euro cut back a bit NW but is colder for LI and CNJ. Shifted SE again.

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If i were to make a snow map (and you all know how i feel about snow maps) for this storm it would be this.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_nyc_13.png

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8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Who's got the Euro? I cancel my subscriptions after met winter ends, and the free sites are too slow and temporally coarse to see what's going on this close to go time. 

I got you.  What do you want me to show you?  

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This is a solid 4-8" storm for pretty much the entrie subforum except eastern LI and SE Monmouth Co and Ocean Co.   I'm sure some areas will see 10" near or just nw of i95.

 

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7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If i were to make a snow map (and you all know how i feel about snow maps) for this storm it would be this.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_nyc_13.png

Not to go back on my preaching about using soundings not snow maps, it looks still like it’s on the warm side of guidance. Definitely warmer than the RGEM if it’s spreading the heaviest snow north of the Tappan Zee. 

Doesn’t change my thinking at all, but I was thinking we’d see a correction back NW after the big SE shift last night. Models today generally went back more amped. 

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8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is a solid 4-8" storm for pretty much the entrie subforum except eastern LI and SE Monmouth Co and Ocean Co.   I'm sure some areas will see 10" near or just nw of i95.

 

The south shore (Nassau/W Suffolk) will be sweating the rain/snow line tomorrow night. Hopefully it stays just offshore. Eastern Suffolk I think changes over for a decent part of it, enough to cut back. I think just north of where the rain snow line ends up really dumps too, just like last night. There’ll also be a good dump before the warm mid level air comes close. 

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Gfs caves to king euro 

No it didn’t lol. The Euro shifted SE while the gfs shifted NW. sounds like a compromise to me

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I'm still antsy about the airmass currently in place, it's very marginal. 

Luckily this will be another evening to overnight event where the sun angle will not be a factor, and that's a huge win. 

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2 minutes ago, Animal said:

 6z gfs caved big time. Don’t deny it.

No it didn't.  

Euro has 4-8 inches for the coast. 

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9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Nice to see some 10+ inch lollipops too!:thumbsup:

Rgem has been showing the same thing since yesterday morning

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14 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Encouraging to see as I wake up this morning the GFS clean up its act with being so dry. 6z qpf map more in line with the other models.

Para also increased snow amounts

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Winter Storm Warning in effect here from 3 pm this afternoon until 7 am Monday morning for 5-8" of snow.

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6Z 12 km NAM and GFS, showing less snow/more sleet and/or rain for coastal sections and even parts of 95 have to be a little unsettling after such nice model consensus at 0Z.  The fact that the 6Z NAM doesn't show nearly as much of this, makes me want to discount the 12 km NAM to some extent and I assume the NWS saw the NAMs before issuing their packages.  Also, the other 6Z guidance doesn't snow this level of mixing/changeover, but still...

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Good morning everyone, two things: the obs thread for March  2 was just updated with the final NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Should look pretty good.       Also, I attached the NWS collaborated snowfall forecast for tonight here, in case no one else posted this earlier.  This is as of 5AM/3rd. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 6.42.15 AM.png

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The south shore (Nassau/W Suffolk) will be sweating the rain/snow line tomorrow night. Hopefully it stays just offshore. Eastern Suffolk I think changes over for a decent part of it, enough to cut back. I think just north of where the rain snow line ends up really dumps too, just like last night. There’ll also be a good dump before the warm mid level air comes close. 

..i concur..all 'future casts' show ELI changing to rain..not expecting big numbers

out here..not sure if winter storm warnings are worthy out my way..after a quick thump of snow

we rain.

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46 minutes ago, tim said:

..i concur..all 'future casts' show ELI changing to rain..not expecting big numbers

out here..not sure if winter storm warnings are worthy out my way..after a quick thump of snow

we rain.

OKX expected snowfall map has Montauk in the 5 inch zone

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