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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it

I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East.

Then again, every storm is different.

Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential! :drunk:

The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON.  Its had a pretty bad run lately

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON.  Its had a pretty bad run lately

This year and last if I remember correctly.

It used to lock onto a solution 48 hrs out and hold onto it to the bitter end and end up verifying. You could trust it with your firstborn!

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24 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play.

All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the breakdown.

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Sounds like Upton has this starting as rain. Anyone have a gut feel as to the changover time Sunday afternoon/evening in the Metro Area?

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Added the banding product from the 18z NAM to my prior post several pages ago. Pretty consistent. Here are the associated NAM UVM in what will be a saturated dendrite zone forecast nr 06z/4.  LGA pretty good... and BDL outstanding.  It's a model signal. Whether it holds is a question but its ben there at least 3 successive cycles.  SOURCE of TSEC  MOE-FSU.   All of this develops a little late for e PA but worthy of seeing how this actually turns out. We'll see if this holds into the 12z/3 cycle. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 4.59.02 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 4.59.54 PM.png

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Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now.

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1 minute ago, SnowFeen said:

I don’t think Central Park starts as rain or rains even one bit.  I think this ends up being an i95 special 4-8 inches. Just my opinion.

I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. 

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6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. 

Yeah it'll be rain for a short time...could be 30 minutes or an hour but as soon as rates increase it'll mix and changeover

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Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now.
Watch how the convection in the South progresses tonight into tomorrow. This will be a good indicator of what's coming our way

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now.

Is the hi res RGEM on tidbits? If not where do you get it?

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Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

Would be a true thread the needle win. That banding is fairly narrow. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

Yeah you can really see it hours 33-37.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

Like we had last night out here. Absolutely ripped from 4 to 6 am. Dropped about 3 inches in 2 hours

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New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

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6 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight scheduled that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

If it was me and I could change I WOULD,,,,I believe start time for this event is between 4 and 6 pm Sunday evening but I could be wrong. The other thing to consider is where are you coming from as South of us could have issues

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3 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

Well, at 4:30PM you may catch the start of the precipitation and it could be R/S mix at the surface.     You should still have time to drive home, before any snow accumulations, if they happen at all.

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25 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

The earlier the better

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52 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

FWIW it was way too wet at this leadtime for today's "storm". I wouldn't buy it until 12 hrs out. Hopefully it's right though

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Like we had last night out here. Absolutely ripped from 4 to 6 am. Dropped about 3 inches in 2 hours

Last night was neat. Went from drizzle to rain to sleet/rain to heavy sleet to heavy snow in about 45 minutes here in Edison.


.
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Euro is colder than 12z.

Best precip is along the coast

6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is colder than 12z.

Best precip is along the coast

6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city.

Axis of heaviest snow is right over NYC and along coast.

IMG_2422.thumb.PNG.71298df86ccc955c5c2c28c9c7.png

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is colder than 12z.

Best precip is along the coast

6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city.

Wow. Euro and RGEM remain steadfast for a major hit. I hope its the correct solution. We will find out soon enough.

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Will this snow stick when temperatures remain above freezing for most, if not all, of the event?

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1 minute ago, husky0101 said:

Will this snow stick when temperatures remain above freezing for most, if not all, of the even?

As long as it's heavy enough

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