Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3k NAM even juicier it seems, though a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air. probably one of those situations where once the precip rates decrease near the end many experience drizzle/light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: That's another inch we all desperately need lol. Either way definite uptick in QPF that run. What’s the total amount of qpf this run compared to last? Also looks like about an hour once either light snow or rain starts. Quickly over to all snow just like what happened in Eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18z 3k NAM has heavy rain at the 07z hour. That’s a marked change, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The models have the surface right at 32 degrees (barely) up here in Rockland County for tonight at the coldest. This is going to be heavy wet paste. Typical for a March storm I agree This is going to be a heavy wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Dewpoints low-mid 20's north jersey should be a limited rain at beginning NJZ001-105-106-008-010-013-015-019>022-104-032100- NEW JERSEY CITY SKY/WX MP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 42 24 49 SE8 30.03F TETERBORO CLOUDY 42 23 46 S6 30.01F CALDWELL CLOUDY 41 24 51 SE7 30.02F SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 41 27 57 VRB5 30.01F LINDEN CLOUDY 41 23 49 S7 30.03F PERTH AMBOY N/A 37 N/A N/A E14 N/A WCI 29 SUSSEX CLOUDY 39 23 52 CALM 29.99F ANDOVER N/A 39 22 50 VRB6 29.99F WCI 35 TRENTON CLOUDY 43 30 60 S6 30.02F MILLVILLE CLOUDY 42 30 62 SE9 30.02F ATLANTIC CITY PTSUNNY 40 34 79 E8 30.03F WCI 34 WRIGHTSTOWN PTSUNNY 42 30 63 SE9 30.00 TOMS RIVER PTSUNNY 41 31 67 SE9 30.05F BELMAR CLOUDY 39 26 59 SE8 30.05F WCI 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, swataz said: 18z 3k NAM has heavy rain at the 07z hour. That’s a marked change, no? It shouldn't depict rain. Solidly below 0 at 850 with mid-hvy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What’s the total amount of qpf this run compared to last? Also looks like about an hour once either light snow or rain starts. Quickly over to all snow just like what happened in Eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Thanks that’s a nice increase... makes sense considering the large swath of amoisture headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Mt. Holly still sticking with 5 - 8 inches in warning area at 3:17 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-040830- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190304T1200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON- MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, WASHINGTON, MORRISTOWN, FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, TRENTON, JIM THORPE, STROUDSBURG, READING, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON, HONEY BROOK, OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE, COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN, NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT, PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE, AND DOYLESTOWN 317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It shouldn't depict rain. Solidly below 0 at 850 with mid-hvy precip Even IF it did mix its after a very heavy thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Even IF it did mix its after a very heavy thump. Yep. Looking good, banding should be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It shouldn't depict rain. Solidly below 0 at 850 with mid-hvy precip Ok. I was going strictly with the precip type/radar map for my comment. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yep. Looking good, banding should be fun Can't complain really, look where we were three weeks ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Even IF it did mix its after a very heavy thump. For example the storm that caused all the power outages last March gave 10 inches of cement BEFORE changing to rain. Obviously very different storm but I think this will be a little cooler than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Huge change on the 3k NAM, tucking a low inside the benchmark at 7z, keeping heavy precip of some sort going for the city north and east. SNE really cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Starting to lightly snow here. 36° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RDRY said: Huge change on the 3k NAM, tucking a low inside the benchmark at 7z, keeping heavy precip of some sort going for the city north and east. SNE really cashes in. Yeah, slightly longer duration on recent mesos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I think someone in north jersey/ S New York State / SW CT sees 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Upton snowmap 6-8 inches for the NYC metro area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: I think someone in north jersey/ S New York State / SW CT sees 12” Maybe watchung areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: I think someone in north jersey/ S New York State / SW CT sees 12” The two jackpot areas will probably be over the Hudson Valley/N NJ/SW CT where ratios are better and banding can set up, and just north of where the rain/sleet makes it and there’s the highest amount of precip. 12” is probably the max with this given how fast the storm’s hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Upton also has 6-8 inches for all of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Maybe watchung areas That little bit of elevation really makes all the difference in these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Nibor said: That little bit of elevation really makes all the difference in these types of storms. Look at last March, I had 4 inches and some of them had 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 the 6-8 for all of nyc metro area seems reasonabe except for the south fork of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Current temp 39/DP 26/RH 56% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 light rain mixed with flakes -union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 national westher service forecasting 5-9 by me in suffolk but they are claiming it will be a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain. does anyone buy this? i was thinking this would be all snow or rain and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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