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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


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5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Cool. Hope your right. City area needs a good snow. Even here, we've just been nickel and diming it all winter.

Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close. 

You seem to have higher confidence for this one JM. Hope you're batting average is still good. Now, where will the subsidence hit this time?  Would like it not to be us for a change.

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55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in.....

 

You're misreading it.  It says, "This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain."  This is only for areas south of 195 (which runs from south of Trenton to Belmar) and east of the Turnpike, which is not a surprise to be at risk.  

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Just now, RU848789 said:

 

You're misreading it.  It says, "This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain."  This is only for areas south of 195 (which runs from south of Trenton to Belmar) and east of the Turnpike, which is not a surprise to be at risk.  

Yes, others have weighed in on this; I was concentrating on the "east of 95" part. When those southern areas rain we don't always; the downside is when they are doing well we can be shut out.

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You seem to have higher confidence for this one JM. Hope you're batting average is still good. Now, where will the subsidence hit this time?  Would like it not to be us for a change.

I doubt the problem this time would be subsidence but who knows-it could always be a factor if heavy banding sets up. Down in LB I’d be more worried about how far north the warm air gets and how much is left if the warm air makes it. 

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3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm  just hoping I can get 9" here. That seems like a stretch to me. Season total so far is 31", so that would put me at 40". Still way below average  but it is what it is.

40” wouldn’t be way below average there. Isn’t your average about 45”? 

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18Z NAM coming in wetter, but also sleets more in southern parts of the city. Lift in the DGZ showing up over LGA at 06Z is more impressive than the 12Z run - this is suggestive of the 1-2"+/hr rates over the city, even if they only last 2-3 hours.

18Z_NAM.thumb.png.b2135687f01a1b7e995af7df0ce8fefd.png

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5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over

The models have the surface right at 32 degrees (barely) up here in Rockland County for tonight at the coldest. This is going to be heavy wet paste. Typical for a March storm

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12z/3 NAM banding as seen thru FSU web MOE web site, courtesy Bob Hart et al.  Lets see what the radar says at this hours, 3z, 6z (can only upload the two hrs).  The way I think of this...decent lift into the ideal dendrite zone is accentuated and the wet snowflakes become larger and show a bright band on radar and depending on the return,  the flake size can assist with snowfall rates (Quinlan et al).  I'm not up to speed on rates but I just look for big time snow in that area, especially if quasi stationary.  In this case transitory east northeastward  but still I think will be notable for anyone having to be out tonight. 305P/3.

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 2.54.04 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 8.55.48 AM.png

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5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

 

Once its over? That's not good, right?

The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air. 

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