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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Start time of midday in March with temps in the 30s.  What could go wrong?

I'm sure this will be as much fun as yesterday's coastal.

You live in the worst snow shadow in our region. You would need everyone else to get 50” for you to have a shot. 

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2 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Long time observerver here, first time posting...Down here in the Richmond metro we are obviously out of the game. I'm thinking of skiing tomorrow. I would assume Bryce resort should perform pretty well with this one. Thoughts?

Bring an umbrella 

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Seriously I think we should shut this thread down...threat is over as far as I can see

Where is @Snowchaser  he got really quiet all of a sudden...

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Bring an umbrella 

Haha. Really? They have minimal elevation (1700), but being just a few miles from the West Virginia line in Shenandoah County I thought they may do ok. Who knows

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF

looks like temps only drop to ~32 nw of the fall line and hover at 33-34 along 95. And that’s on the euro which is still more amplified.  So a weaker solution might be even warmer at the surface. Those temps only work during the day in March with rates.  Weak precip and that’s white rain. 

Yup. Going to be rate and elevation dependent. @jayyy could see a couple inches more than me only a few miles away. I actually think LWX’s current forecast is pretty good, but could be a sharper dividing line unless there is more widespread front or backend snow. At the height of the storm tomorrow evening there will be a brutal dividing line.

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This feels so much like those storms where Cantore heads to DC or Baltimore and stands there as white rain falls and everything behind him is wet and it's a total bust. 

I'd be totally fine letting the NW crew get hammered with 6-10/8-12 with this one. I'm big dog hunting anyway, and this is like a 3-6 at best here, and it's probably not even that given the temperatures, timing and intensity.

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3-6” is a good storm for us anytime, let alone march. If I had to WAG right now, I’d say 2-3” for us and @Scraff, but we might have to measure it in batches with melting or rain in between.  3-5” by I70, and 4-8” for the far NW folks.

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12 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Haha. Really? They have minimal elevation (1700), but being just a few miles from the West Virginia line in Shenandoah County I thought they may do ok. Who knows

Pretty far south, rates.  But who knows.  Elevation will help.  I'd go further west, or north.  Good luck.

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2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Not completely true. For the DC area, they said conversational snow changing to rain most likely, but they also said this could change and they will update this afternoon. 

Yep, could just be plain rain and no snow at all.

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Given the marginal temps and the heaviest rates being very close to the r/s line, there is probably going to be a very narrow band of accumulating snow. Even narrower than what is being forecasted. Less than an inch an hr won’t cut it imo. I honestly think areas that just barely stay all snow may have the best opportunity for higher acculations. It’s not like temps drop off into the 20’s the further north and west you go. The best you’re gonna get is 31-32 even if you’re in a really good location. 

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I'm having a bad feeling that the dividing line at the height of the storm will be around Shawan Rd. Hope I'm wrong and it's further south, but I've seen several events where the rain/snow line ended up between Shawan Rd and Middletown Rd. I don't know if there will be a last minute bump north, but those of us who are south of 39.5N can't really afford it.

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Agree Fozz...its painfully close to us who live on the west ridge but just far enough south.  Fingers crossed on this one.

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Love waking up to fresh snow on the ground and a winter storm watch :bike:

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Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready.

Any maps?

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready.

Now you're talking.  Deep thunder/rpm is the new euro/eta

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3-6” is a good storm for us anytime, let alone march. If I had to WAG right now, I’d say 2-3” for us and @Scraff, but we might have to measure it in batches with melting or rain in between.  3-5” by I70, and 4-8” for the far NW folks.

I mean what’s another stats padder right? Obviously I / we are rooting for a few last minute small shifts that can pull us up to warning criteria. 

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready.

OMG. How many cases of beer should I run out and grab? :rolleyes:

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20 minutes ago, Jeff B said:

Agree Fozz...its painfully close to us who live on the west ridge but just far enough south.  Fingers crossed on this one.

Yep, it will be a very close call. We tend to do well in marginal events where elevation is the main factor, and precip is already falling as snow. Sometimes you'll see white rain along York Rd while there is accumulating snow west of I-83 around Jenifer Rd. But when the rain/snow line (or wintry mix/snow line) splits Baltimore county, our latitude is not always our friend.

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41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG just cancelled the event...just conversational sleet/snow changing to rain.

Not for you,  probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester.  I'm certainly not impressed for DC. 

 

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

12k is a nice front end thump before changing to rain for the cities. PSU’s dream for his back yard. 

eh.... surface temps are 33-34 so without good rates it will just be white rain for the cities, before changing to actual rain.

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5 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

12k is a nice front end thump before changing to rain for the cities. PSU’s dream for his back yard. 

Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end 

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Not for you,  probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester.  I'm certainly not impressed for DC. 

Do you think the NAM has a better handle on QPF and temp profiles than the Canadian mesos?

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end 

Looks pretty heavy to me when it starts...enough to whiten everything up. 

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