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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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3knam has advertised best rates between 5-10 PM for last couple runs.  I expect rates to pickup next hour or so . About 1" here maybe 1 .25" 

32 moderate snow 

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The upper level setup was not ideal for this. I had a feeling this is how it could end up.  We need highs to the north.  Instead, the 540 line is way northwest of the region.  Cold is cold though so maybe we flip back.

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Just now, 87storms said:

The upper level setup was not ideal for this. I had a feeling this is how it could end up.  We need highs to the north.  Instead, the 540 line is way northwest of the region.  Cold is cold though so maybe we flip back.

We need heavy returns pronto, before we lost the column entirely. 

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Just got back from a 3 mile walk. Snow walks will never get old. 

Roads and sidewalks finally starting to cave.

Currently 30 degrees with Moderate snow in Smithsburg.

1.25" so far.

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At least the severe outbreak is over-performing.

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The severe outbreak is more good than bad for snow later, it shows the system is rapidly deepening and so that should pull in colder air faster, some places that have flipped from snow to rain could go back to snow after 7 pm. Not much hope for anywhere southeast of I-95 but between there and current snowfall, could change back. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Some good FGEN  around 0z -3z 

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_9.png

Maybe a few mangled flakes mixed in here? If not, at least my rain will be colder lol.

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

If only we had a high pressure in northern New York state.

Yeah then we’d probably see a sunset and dry weather 

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Ouch...talk about a lowering of totals. And, those 3-4" amounts might be a reach. This type of stuff has seemingly been happening in coastal NE all winter. 

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Lwx lowered yet increased my warning lol.  Go figure

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
508 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

MDZ006-507-040615-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190304T0900Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
508 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...4 to 7 inches of snow expected. Snow may mix with sleet
  and rain at times this evening.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday. Snow will be heaviest between 5
  PM and 10 PM this afternoon and evening, with snowfall rates
  around one inch per hour expected. The snow may mix with sleet
  and rain at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult due to snow
  covered and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$


 

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Just took the dog on a Jebwalk. Sleet.snow mix here now NW of Winchester. Have about an inch of snow. If it doesnt flip back I will be disappointed for sure. EVERY single model gave me at least 4 inches.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just took the dog on a Jebwalk. Sleet.snow mix here now NW of Winchester. Have about an inch of snow. If it doesnt flip back I will be disappointed for sure. EVERY single model gave me at least 4 inches.

Ouch. I don’t think anything had you mixing. Even the NAM. 

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