Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It’s in the fiction section.  There is also a version in adult fantasy.  I can loan you mine.  

I just plagiarized from the weenie handbook.  But at least i can point to the NAM and say we have the smallest of chances.  I’m just sick of the constant deluges.  Give me snow or give me sunny and 70

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I just plagiarized from the weenie handbook.  But at least i can point to the NAM and say we have the smallest of chances.  I’m just sick of the constant deluges.  Give me snow or give me sunny and 70

Amen. The door is mostly closed but cracked a little for us. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. I’ve learned in just one winter of tracking and paying attention to the weather that we don’t do unlikely well. But who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well at least the 3km NAM seems reasonably sane. It is somewhat warmer aloft, and per the 10:1 snow maps it has the heavier snowfall clearly NW of the fall line, as expected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol

The 850 0c line clearly moved SE along with the snow line 

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Wow, how did you figure this out?  Are you sure?

He has the predisposition  to negative melancholy that many do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

Agreed but if your goal is to see snow falling then it wasn’t bad.  Might be little to show for it but show at my location.  I can live with that.  Just not dripping rain..anything but that.  You’ll do great! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agreed but if your goal is to see snow falling then it wasn’t bad.  Might be little to show for it but show at my location.  I can live with that.  Just not dripping rain..anything but that.  You’ll do great! 

I'm with you. Any snow falling is a win in my book even if it doesn't lay. Nothing worse then 32-33 degrees and rain. 

eta: Actually I lied, 95+ degrees and 70+ humidity is worse.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

RGEM is smoking the same thing as the NAM.

This storm is going to kill us.  Hate to say it but glad we are in the 9th inning of this  winter.  I’m beat

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.

Nah that ICON snow map is always low compared to output, at least if you're talking about the TT one. Can be accurate at times, but underdone while all the others are overdone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro juiced up a tad at 12z and Rgem definitely juiced up ...has 1" qpf tickeling southern Carroll,Fredrick and Baltimore counties and actually  1" in the cities..rates...rates ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DDweatherman said:

Nah that ICON snow map is always low compared to output, at least if you're talking about the TT one. Can be accurate at times, but underdone while all the others are overdone. 

Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.

Definitely agree with that, not seeing those numbers over the bay. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro juiced up a tad at 12z and Rgem definitely juiced up ...has 1" qpf tickeling southern Carroll,Fredrick and Baltimore counties and actually  1" in the cities..rates...rates ..

They look almost identical. Even the snow map looks almost the same. I think we have some agreement on what is going to happen at this point.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What I'd do to see this verify..... :o 

wn1FuAB.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.

$200 bucks and I can almost guarantee you won't see rain. :whistle:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is clearly an event from I-81 to northern Loudoun and areas near and north of I-70 to the M/D line. 5-9 inch solid event is my call there. MRB to Reisterstown and north is jackpot zone, higher end totals closer to M/D line. 

I would be surprised to see 3-4” even out here in the Ashburn/Leesburg area. D.C. proper will be lucky to see 1”. South and east of there a dusting then rain.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.

I hear you!  My yard has been like a swamp for the last 6 months.  Except for the couple of days it was frozen, it has been like walking on sponge since late summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

$200 bucks and I can almost guarantee you won't see rain. :whistle:

200?  That’s Vegas money.  

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is clearly an event from I-81 to northern Loudoun and areas near and north of I-70 to the M/D line. 5-9 inch solid event is my call there. 

I would be surprised to see 3-4” even out here in the Ashburn/Leesburg area. D.C. proper will be lucky to see 1”. South and east of there a dusting then rain.

I live a quarter mile from 70 but also a couple miles outside Baltimore City. I usually get caught in the screw zone for these type of events .. every once in a while my little but of elevation works in my favor. 5 inches is my benchmark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is clearly an event from I-81 to northern Loudoun and areas near and north of I-70 to the M/D line. 5-9 inch solid event is my call there. MRB to Reisterstown jackpot zone. 

I would be surprised to see 3-4” even out here in the Ashburn/Leesburg area. D.C. proper will be lucky to see 1”. South and east of there a dusting then rain.

Dundalk Md? Ya know since we’re being location specific and all^_^

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said:

I hear you!  My yard has been like a swamp for the last 6 months.  Except for the couple of days it was frozen, it has been like walking on sponge since late summer.

I have 6 acres, and where the house is located is "high" and the soil is well drained. My driveway is a mess though, and there is a wetland back in the woods. Mosquito breeding ground in Spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I need a happy hour gfs run 

Negative Ghostrider

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is clearly an event from I-81 to northern Loudoun and areas near and north of I-70 to the M/D line. 5-9 inch solid event is my call there. MRB to Reisterstown jackpot zone. 

I would be surprised to see 3-4” even out here in the Ashburn/Leesburg area. D.C. proper will be lucky to see 1”. South and east of there a dusting then rain.

I'm not far from Reisterstown. Best news I've heard all day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×