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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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52 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Haha. Really? They have minimal elevation (1700), but being just a few miles from the West Virginia line in Shenandoah County I thought they may do ok. Who knows

I would head up to Whitetail. They should do really well with this.

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1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

12Z NAM mixes as far north in the Valley as OKV.  I stay all snow, but <.40" QPF through hr 39.

It stays all snow to OKV. More like a Stephen City flip....But that isnt surprising. Just ask EastCoast :)

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Here we go again. Sun angle mid day snow posts hahaha. If the rates are there, so is the sticking. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Here we go again. Sun angle mid day snow posts hahaha. If the rates are there, so is the sticking. 

But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter.

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter.

Exactly. That’s the kicker. We shall see. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It stays all snow to OKV. More like a Stephen City flip....But that isnt surprising. Just ask EastCoast :)

Yep.  There will be next to no accumulation south of Winchester.  Typical March event.

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The onset on the 3K is a couple hrs later than 12k which in my opinion is good. I’d rather get the snow burst after 3 and have a chance of it still snowing near sunset than at noon or 1 and already mixing with or changing to rain by 4

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Metro Baltimore stays right on the rain snow line thru the duration on the 3K. Lol that’ll make for a difficult forecast 

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@Jeff B The 3K NAM looks pretty good for us, better than the previous run. Just about all snow north of the beltway.. and 33 with moderate to heavy rates should be able to do it.

I will point out though that there is a warm layer around 770mb... it almost reaches freezing but not quite. So if it's slightly warmer up there, we could get mixing with sleet.

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep.  There will be next to no accumulation south of Winchester.  Typical March event.

You could root for way south weak and rain for all. C.A.P.E did that and who knows ...it could happen.  

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8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

3K has a nice snow burst from 3-5pm for most of us 

Yeah, 3k is like 1-2" on grass for cities followed by rain. At this point i'd take that. 95 north and west stay mostly snow. Slight improvements on both NAM's. They are slightly drier though compared to 6z. Interested to see what the RGEM and HRDPS show...

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

12K NAMing? 

AA9AC5D4-DCF6-41E7-992B-73AE42C550BA.jpeg

The snow map doesn’t make sense with what the conditionals show for our area. So one of them is wrong. Shows how tight this storm is though. Got to think elevation plays a role

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Just now, MD Snow said:

snow maps, blah. 6z looked better even easter of the cities. 

Easter? Lol that’s a few weeks away 

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I advise you all to use caution when looking at the FV3. Feedback per a recent model discussion I attended indicate it has been running too cold and wet. 

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

snow maps, blah. 6z looked better even easter of the cities. 

Snow maps are flawed, but the drying trend is obvious when looking at them.

1049069186_namconus_asnow_neus_fh54_trend(1).thumb.gif.0babae4e7fb115cfdeb47322689819fb.gif

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Just now, WVclimo said:

Snow maps are flawed, but the drying trend is obvious when looking at them.

1049069186_namconus_asnow_neus_fh54_trend(1).thumb.gif.0babae4e7fb115cfdeb47322689819fb.gif

Those included snow from last night. 

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29 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Not for you,  probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester.  I'm certainly not impressed for DC. 

 

Thanks I got the idea...I'm happy with any snow...I was primarily piling onto the negative vibe the crew here was spewing...I'm good either way.

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Those included snow from last night. 

That's a good point, but especially from my yard westward there wasn't much progged for last night.  2" at most on the NAM runs from yesterday.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Half of nothing is nothing.

 

I know what you mean though. 

 

The Nam snow maps were showing 2-5” for last nights coastal pretty much region wide fyi...even with that things have been looking drier.

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I’m 6.4” shy of 30”, doubt I get that but would be nice to get close

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3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Screenshot_20190302-062238_Chrome.jpg

That seems bullish to me. Good.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m 6.4” shy of 30”, doubt I get that but would be nice to get close

I think 4-5 is a lock for you 

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