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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think you are underestimating Sunday. I think we are going to get hit pretty hard at this point. 

Yes, flood watches to be issued soon.

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18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Would you be able to share how much QPF is progged ? The wife and I have an early a.m. appointment in Morgantown on Monday, and were considering traveling up there late on Sunday.  The storm obviously affects that decision,

Subtract this 

4EC4611A-6CBA-44A7-924D-1502BD3AA73D.thumb.png.1d6505543489b36614d6179a07fe9149.png

from this and you get an idea 

71F76711-1481-4302-8053-A048A880C0D0.thumb.png.effd804a3cadc789df5b1e7a48267f5c.png

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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

At least you wont have to go far. Just up 270 to Frederick should do the trick.

oh no doubt.  ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends.  there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key.  this has that vibe to it.  the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations.

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Nam stronger with the LPC but south through 39hrs. 

Well now that we are getting this Rainer out of the way, the models will have less interference and it will definitely be colder and more snowier

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

NAM says we will go from this cold rain to another cold rain.  

No it doesn't. It is giving me 4 inches tonight and another five on Sunday and the storm ain't even done at that point.

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3 minutes ago, PDIII said:

No it doesn't. It is giving me 4 inches tonight and another five on Sunday and the storm ain't even done at that point.

Well congrats to you.  Where are you at?  Doesn’t look like anyone gets below freezing on sunday.  

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2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

No it doesn't. It is giving me 4 inches tonight and another five on Sunday and the storm ain't even done at that point.

Keep us posted

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5 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

12k still sucks for nova for the most part

So the whole south and colder idea is not real?  Well that’s not fun

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Well congrats to you.  Where are you at?  Doesn’t look like anyone gets below freezing on sunday.  

Baltimore. 

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Could a man expert chime in here?  12k looks sheared or has a double center going on after ;8 hours.  Precip shield looks weird or am I just tired?

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1 minute ago, PDIII said:

Baltimore. 

It gives Baltimore 9” thru sunday?  Looks like rain tomorrow and then it starts as snow sunday but then its mostly rain.   But maybe I’m seeing it wrong.  

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Both NAMs have a slightly better cold press this run early on. That’s a good thing. Overall there does seem to be a slight south bleed across guidance right now. Will it be enough for the 95 corridor is the question. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Both NAMs have a slightly better cold press this run early on. That’s a good thing. Overall there does seem to be a slight south bleed across guidance right now. Will it be enough for the 95 corridor is the question. 

Seems the biggest difference between them and the good globals that get snow to us are low strength. Just apply the over amping of Nams at range bias and we are golden (so to speak)

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Both NAMs have a slightly better cold press this run early on. That’s a good thing. Overall there does seem to be a slight south bleed across guidance right now. Will it be enough for the 95 corridor is the question. 

No I think we will make a remarkable showing but fall just short.  But I am about 20 miles west of 95 so I will follow until the clouds clear

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The NAMs aren’t bad.  Trending a little colder at least.  The Baltimore guy claiming it gives him 4” tonight and 5” Sunday must be smoking something good though.  

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Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

As psu mentioned, the 32F contour line on 3k is pressing further south. Need more tho

Still some time and we aren’t going the opposite way.  Keep the faith

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both NAMs have a slightly better cold press this run early on. That’s a good thing. Overall there does seem to be a slight south bleed across guidance right now. Will it be enough for the 95 corridor is the question. 

Still a bit of time and this storm out of the way

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

No I think we will make a remarkable showing but fall just short.  But I am about 20 miles west of 95 so I will follow until the clouds clear

There is no more “we” with this storm.  Half of the forum looks ok.  The other half not so much.  Hopefully things change a bit more.  No way the models have the exact r/s line nailed this far out.  

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