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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


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2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Can someone post the 12z euro snow map please. Don’t have access attm and would like  to compare to gfs see how much spread we need to cover over next couple model runs..

Thanks in advance

Includes tonight as well

046361BB-71B2-425B-96D0-A819424C2C7C.png

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

That's a pretty stout HP in the NW. Too bad it's not a couple of hundred miles to the east, or less.

Yes. The changes we need are not impossible.  We are talking 10s of miles.  Still this beats tracking spring.  FV3 would be epic for us. Pray.   

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes. The changes we need are not impossible.  We are talking 10s of miles.  Still this beats tracking spring.  FV3 would be epic for us. Pray.   

 Totally agree with you. To start march with the potential for three-four straight days of wintry weather is about as good as it gets. I'm not in the best place for the next two events but I'm enjoying tracking it almost as much as if I was. Hoping at least the northern crew can really cash in. 

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One of the things I like to watch as we approach the short range is how the 3K NAM lines up with the globals.  Watch the NAM over the next several runs and compare to the EURO/GFS.  It did a nice job with today's system.  (MAP is from WEATHERBELL.  It seems it lets me copy the American maps, but Mods let me know if I should not post.  Thanks.)  Looking at the 850s,  Using this as a guide, it  would appear the rain/snow line will be North of 70 and SW of North Western Montgomery, Western Howard, and Western Fairfax.

 

 

hires_t850_maryland_61.png

 

 

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Watches just went up for the western counties in the 81 corridor.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
155 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-501>504-020300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.190303T1200Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190302T0900Z/
Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
155 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and freezing rain this afternoon and tonight. Heavy
  snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. New snow accumulations of
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 5 inches
  or more possible Sunday and Sunday night.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland,
  northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Ice will be
  primarily confined to higher elevations until tonight.
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I do feel the pain of those 30-50 miles to the East on this one.  (It is not a given that anyone east of the Appalachians and south of the MD line is getting anything yet.)  I spent my first 30 years living east of the Capital Beltway. A slight shift SE is still possible with this one for various reason already posted.  I have one stupid question.  Do the models take into account forecasted snow fall when predicting air temperatures?  What I'm asking is whether the 2 inches tonight in the Northern tier could factor into surface temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

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17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

One of the things I like to watch as we approach the short range is how the 3K NAM lines up with the globals.  Watch the NAM over the next several runs and compare to the EURO/GFS.  It did a nice job with today's system.  (MAP is from WEATHERBELL.  It seems it lets me copy the American maps, but Mods let me know if I should not post.  Thanks.)  Looking at the 850s,  Using this as a guide, it  would appear the rain/snow line will be North of 70 and SW of North Western Montgomery, Western Howard, and Western Fairfax.

 

 

hires_t850_maryland_61.png

 

 

That 0 is western PWC is over my house.  I assume this is an expected snowfall map? 

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13 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

18z 12kNAM ramping up the coastal. 3mb deeper through 20hrs and closer to the coast compared to 12z. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sunday/Monday if at all. 

....Through 36hrs 850's are further south than 12z. 

Flatter through 42 as well.

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12k nam with snow breaking out at 15z sunday morning. The arctic boundary is pushing further southeast this run up in canada it's reflected in better looking 850's through 45hrs out. 

I'm beginning to think that we need to root for a stronger NS low...so far that's why we've seen improvements...

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Still not where we want it but it’s inching closer. We need to do something that is painful for us all:  root for NeW England to get destroyed tomm 

If it will help you all get snow then I am rooting for new england to get crushed BAD, so bad they have to crawl out of their 4th story windows because of drifts.

Then I root for the Mid Atlantic to get utterly annihilated by snow.

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