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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure over the Carolinas will makes its way northeastward
off the Virginia coast tonight. Precipitation is tapering off
from west to east this evening, with the bulk of it aligned
along and east of the Blue Ridge. Warmer air aloft won out this
afternoon and evening with the rain/snow/sleet line shifting
further northward than projected, crossing into north central
Maryland and extreme northern Virginia. The 00z IAD upper air
sounding measured a warm nose between 800-850mb, with a max temp
of 3.4C at 825mb. The warmer air and northward shift of the mix
line resulted in lower snow totals. A cold rain has prevailed
to the south and east into the metros, as temperatures this
evening are in the low to mid 30s.
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

See you all for the March 12-14th storm to end winter. 

One last hurrah. We can do this. Hope anyway. Not ready for an 8 month hibernation yet. I mean severe storm tracking is fun, but somehow it still leaves me with any empty feeling. 

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Huge bust so far out here as well --- all we got was snow TV all morning, then sleet/rain for hours with occasional bursts of heavy snow.....nothing but an icy crust on the ground. I'm starting to think the 1"/hr rates from 3PM-8PM might not be happening after all.....:fulltilt:

That warm nose was brutal and deadly. Been a long time since we've had one bust this bad out here during the actual event -- LWX had us in WSW for 4-8", models showed 6-10" with none having less than 4". 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Parr’s ridge did alright, I think.

Looks like we'll finish around 5. Hit low end of warning criteria and was plowable. No complaints here. Puts me at 37.0 for the season which is right at climo. Take away the 6 inches I got from the November storm and I still broke 30. That storm still was the single highest storm total this year for us up here which is pretty odd. This was the case with the October storm in 2011 however much less snow followed in that winter.

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4 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Huge bust so far out here as well --- all we got was snow TV all morning, then sleet/rain for hours with occasional bursts of heavy snow.....nothing but an icy crust on the ground. I'm starting to think the 1"/hr rates from 3PM-8PM might not be happening after all.....:fulltilt:

That warm nose was brutal and deadly. Been a long time since we've had one bust this bad out here during the actual event -- LWX had us in WSW for 4-8", models showed 6-10" with none having less than 4". 

 

 

 

It is wild that the cutoff was just west of the Blue Ridge. You guys usually do well with your elevation.

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