Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 
Leesburgwx is already at 30
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just looked at the HRRR for the first time. Not too inspiring lol. Of course, it's the HRRR.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:
Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 

Leesburgwx is already at 30

Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? :D

Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So  I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model.

There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked reasonable, and it has pretty much held.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded 
Let other people do my dirty work. Sounds good to me. Enjoy your 3-5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

34/21 with a light northerly breeze and a steady barometer.  Only a bit of snow cover survived the warmth yesterday/ overnight.

A bit drier air than I expected in N MD and S PA.  Dews in the low 20's upper teens.  DP just dropped to 25 here in the past few minutes.  I havent been paying attention to what models have been forecasting but I did take a look at the 3k yesterday  and the lowest dp predicted was 28 at HGR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Not for all. Still looks the same up my way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded 

Let other people do my dirty work. Sounds good to me. Enjoy your 3-5

besides where you measure is urban Leesburg by the river. Might as well be DCA

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

6z euro 10-1. No kuchera for off hours. 

A43B2AC4-664A-43DC-896E-6BFB1879836F.thumb.png.3eba11fb49cf126b8bb89cca3e6cedb1.png

You guys up north look good. I think anyone in the purple or southwest of there in the darker blue should be good. I think anyone outside of the dark blue is likely to struggle, and I'm guessing the light blues and especially grays will ultimately end up with nothing but maybe bit of slop on the grass. Hope I'm wrong. HRDPS and RGEM and even the NAMs give me a lot of hope here, but I'm afraid it's false hope and TT algorithm doing it's usual crazy snow thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

It’s 40 in the Dalk. Hard for me to buy much more than 1” of stop. Just not enough cold air around 

I can only handle so much stop 

A friend at work lives east of the city in middle river. He moved there from Harford county years ago and is always complaining how he gets less snow then everyone else even in the city. I keep telling him if he commuted from the same distance to the northwest he would probably get about 10” more a year and 1-2” more (at least) in most storms. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can only handle so much stop 

A friend at work lives east of the city in middle river. He moved there from Harford county years ago and is always complaining how he gets less snow then everyone else even in the city. I keep telling him if he commuted from the same distance to the northwest he would probably get about 10” more a year and 1-2” more (at least) in most storms. 

I would agree with that lol. Low elevation and the bay are a b*tch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1?

The huchera has been running higher than 10-1 to the NW of the max line and below it to the south. Looking at the hourly precip plots I would say south of a Winchester-Mt Airy-Hereford-Rising Sun line I would shave 1-2” off due to mixing or very marginal temps. NW of that line with elevation might even do slightly better than 10-1 in the banding that sets up there but even there were talking slightly better, like 11-1 or 12-1 Max even on ridges. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

You guys up north look good. I think anyone in the purple or southwest of there in the darker blue should be good. I think anyone outside of the dark blue is likely to struggle, and I'm guessing the light blues and especially grays will ultimately end up with nothing but maybe bit of slop on the grass. Hope I'm wrong. HRDPS and RGEM and even the NAMs give me a lot of hope here, but I'm afraid it's false hope and TT algorithm doing it's usual crazy snow thing.

Nothing would really surprise me for us. All snow, nearly all rain, mix.  Think we see some accumulation, but big bust potential on both sides.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...