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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


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Newer hi res models continue to be colder / wetter. FV-3 is snowier than the GFS. RGEM and HRDPS are also very snowy. Here is the 500 mb look at 24 hours on the fv3. Not too shabby. A low exiting the NC/VA border and heading NE typically is a great sign. Marginal air or not. 

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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Its awfully warm out ladies just sayin

It’s 36 here. DP 28. Not terribly warm.... get some precip here and we’re down to 33 easy. We’ll be alright. Some models do hint at rain to start if it’s very light in nature. Well flip the moment we get appreciable returns overhead. 

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It’s 36 here. DP 28. Not terribly warm.... get some precip here and we’re down to 33 easy. We’ll be alright. Some models do hint at rain to start if it’s very light in nature. Well flip the moment we get appreciable returns overhead. 

Not questioning that...I understand the dynamics just saying it's a little warmer right now than expected.  Still a bit of time before onset

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NAM twins are in and they continue the theme of what I have seen over the last 24+ hours on guidance and what I sort of expected to see. The tendency on guidance has been to amp (buckle) the flow a touch, away from the flat somewhat zonal look we were seeing on previous runs as the storm runs underneath us. So what does that mean?

That means we would see the initial low take a more southern track (blue line) to our south initially as there is a better press at 500's behind it vs. the more zonal look (black line). But then you notice that we see blue track start hooking north as it hits the coast in what is typical of a Bench Mark track (track quite often seen with big east coast storms) vs the black track which is running more OTS. The reason for this is that with the slightly better buckling at 500's the low has more room to grow so it strengthens quicker and stronger vs the more zonal flow. This strengthening will have a tendency to pull the low pole-ward adding a more northerly component to the track. And this is what we have generally seen over the guidance the last 24 hours or so. This is a good thing as it allows our region to be under the influence of a stronger low longer vs. a weaker low that is running for the most part OTS. What is a shame though is that we don't have high pressure extending over top of us. Throw that into the mix and we more then likely have a MEC or even a KU from DC up into the NE. 

 

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Now at this point most of our precip (rain/snow) is related to WAA (warm air aloft) as the low runs to our south and very little of it is related to a CCB (cold conveyor belt) transport of moisture from the low off the coast. With a quicker stronger low to our south you will see a better response with precip totals but you are also seeing a more aggressive push of a warm nose at mid-levels as well. And this can be seen with the latest NAMs. The question at that point is, are the increase in rates enough to balance out the stronger push of warm as they mix it out? In the NAMs case not so much as they do shift northward somewhat with the rain/snow line. Now one thing I will be curious to see. The NAMs are just now picking up on strengthening the low sooner as they see a more favorable 500 setup. And this is happening within 12 hours of game time. But after that initial quicker strengthening they then slow done that strengthening as to where we see roughly equivalent pressures when the low is off the coast compared to our flatter runs. I question if that will be the case here if in fact they are right with the stronger low to our south. I would tend to believe that we would see a stronger low off the coast then what the NAM's currently show (again, if the models are correct with the lows earlier solution). The implications could be that we actually see a somewhat organized and stronger CBB flow setup soon enough as to have a somewhat meaningful impact for our region. This would favor areas more so in the east/northeast portions of our region.

 

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CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Or past experiences in March with the lack of cold air. 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Where are you seeing their latest forecast? All I see is the one posted from 9:45 last night.

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5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Or past experiences in March with the lack of cold air. 

They specifically showed the nam but yes combined with their knowledge of course. On here we just look at pretty snow maps and run with it.

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15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

FB

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. 

eta: Also wouldn't be surprised if NE MD does a little better then projected if the low is a little stronger off the coast.

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CWG is also mainly concerned with dc and it’s suburbs. I wouldn’t be overly thrilled in downtown dc or areas south either, so I understand the tone. I, on the other hand, live in between I 70 and 108, and have a much better “boom” chance, being NE of DC. I know my area and these marginal storms. As places like east Catonsville and Baltimore are seeing slop, reisterstown pikesville West EC and points N are seeing appreciable snow. 10 miles means everything here. QPF near Baltimore and it’s suburbs will also be higher than SW areas of the forum. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. 

Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course 

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46 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis 

Admittedly I don't have a whole lot of interest at this point, but I skimmed through the guidance this morning, and other than maybe the Euro, everything looked a bit warmer to me. Likely won't make much difference far N and W, but around I-95 it will. After the initial onset of precip, which will likely be rain, the best chances for places like DC to pick up an inch or 2 is clearly this evening, when rates pick up and some dynamic cooling occurs. Beyond that, warming aloft will be moving in from the SE, and with surface temps probably just above freezing, p-type will transition to more of a sleet/rain mix for I-95 and points SE.

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I checked my weather radio about an hour ago and I heard that Southeast Harford is now in the WSW sector with 3-6" possible.  Better than the 1-3" it had last night.  I guess the projected storm track was adjusted slightly more south overnight. 

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