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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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Just now, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, snowfan said:
0z NAM looks wet and warm...if it's right, DC and most SE of 95 likely see no accumulation at all.

Better than dry and warm. DC might have to take one for the team

Sure, but if the NAM is right you're prob not going to see much either.

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44 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If the storm turns out as advertised, then I’ll be pretty satisfied with this winter, especially with the coming cold stretch afterwards.

Maybe I am being pessimistic, but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. The margin of error is razor thin. White rain in the mix. Bad ratios. We've done this old song and dance before with snowquester. Those accumulation maps won't verify.

I'd honestly be stunned if this is anything for than 1-2 slushy inches on the grass from Baltimore to Philly.

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4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Maybe I am being pessimistic, but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. The margin of error is razor thin. White rain in the mix. Bad ratios. We've done this old song and dance before with snowquester. Those accumulation maps won't verify.

I'd honestly be stunned if this is anything for than 1-2 slushy inches on the grass from Baltimore to Philly.

Yes, I’m well aware of the temp issues. I’ve seen marginal events turn out both ways.

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I’ve seen overamped NAM runs bring rain the day before a very good snowstorm (Feb 2015 comes to mind). The 12z WRF NMM run shows a very similar look, with rain all the way to mappy, but I didn’t think it was worth mentioning since it was alone at the time and is effectively only one ensemble member.

If other guidance follows suit, then many of us are in trouble.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you dont get hit you can literally drive 8 miles west and be on top of the Blue Ridge where they will be getting hit hard.

I am 41 degrees right now with a 32 Dew. Where is the cold air?

Don't worry... It'll get here...... On Wednesday

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