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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible.


for real, I love TTT but these maps are horrible. NAM maps had me getting 6” of snow/sleet last night. Wanna guess what I got?

Should focus on the 850 temp improvements and just call that a win.
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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I think his point was to show the changes between those two runs. My only takeaway from his post is that it’s a slightly colder run than 12z and there’s more frozen precip. We all know DC isn’t getting 6”.

If he wanted to "show the changes", he would not lazily be posting the snow maps. If you look upstairs, there isn't much difference at all. Run-to run noise.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible.

Still waiting for the 4-5" the NAM gave me this morning, didn't witness a single flake or pellet lol

 

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This is why I wouldn’t want a separate thread.  I know this probably a blip and I’m not getting 6 inches.  But the roller coaster is why we do this.  It’s fun.  A thread of people not getting snow would be like getting donkey punched with every post.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

You done good yoder, ya done good.  We fought the good fight.  Let it go, son.   Let it go.  We can't win 'em all.  This is a classic N and W event.

Yoda is the best.  And who knows maybe our bottle isn’t empty just yet. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It’s in the fiction section.  There is also a version in adult fantasy.  I can loan you mine.  

I just plagiarized from the weenie handbook.  But at least i can point to the NAM and say we have the smallest of chances.  I’m just sick of the constant deluges.  Give me snow or give me sunny and 70

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I just plagiarized from the weenie handbook.  But at least i can point to the NAM and say we have the smallest of chances.  I’m just sick of the constant deluges.  Give me snow or give me sunny and 70

Amen. The door is mostly closed but cracked a little for us. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. I’ve learned in just one winter of tracking and paying attention to the weather that we don’t do unlikely well. But who knows

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24 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol

The 850 0c line clearly moved SE along with the snow line 

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

Agreed but if your goal is to see snow falling then it wasn’t bad.  Might be little to show for it but show at my location.  I can live with that.  Just not dripping rain..anything but that.  You’ll do great! 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agreed but if your goal is to see snow falling then it wasn’t bad.  Might be little to show for it but show at my location.  I can live with that.  Just not dripping rain..anything but that.  You’ll do great! 

I'm with you. Any snow falling is a win in my book even if it doesn't lay. Nothing worse then 32-33 degrees and rain. 

eta: Actually I lied, 95+ degrees and 70+ humidity is worse.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.

Nah that ICON snow map is always low compared to output, at least if you're talking about the TT one. Can be accurate at times, but underdone while all the others are overdone. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Nah that ICON snow map is always low compared to output, at least if you're talking about the TT one. Can be accurate at times, but underdone while all the others are overdone. 

Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro juiced up a tad at 12z and Rgem definitely juiced up ...has 1" qpf tickeling southern Carroll,Fredrick and Baltimore counties and actually  1" in the cities..rates...rates ..

They look almost identical. Even the snow map looks almost the same. I think we have some agreement on what is going to happen at this point.

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