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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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@Jeff B The 3K NAM looks pretty good for us, better than the previous run. Just about all snow north of the beltway.. and 33 with moderate to heavy rates should be able to do it.

I will point out though that there is a warm layer around 770mb... it almost reaches freezing but not quite. So if it's slightly warmer up there, we could get mixing with sleet.

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8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

3K has a nice snow burst from 3-5pm for most of us 

Yeah, 3k is like 1-2" on grass for cities followed by rain. At this point i'd take that. 95 north and west stay mostly snow. Slight improvements on both NAM's. They are slightly drier though compared to 6z. Interested to see what the RGEM and HRDPS show...

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29 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Not for you,  probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester.  I'm certainly not impressed for DC. 

 

Thanks I got the idea...I'm happy with any snow...I was primarily piling onto the negative vibe the crew here was spewing...I'm good either way.

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51 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep, could just be plain rain and no snow at all.

Ok you need to chill.   There are some places in this sub that will get snow.  Some people will be happy with only 2-3” and a lot of people in the northern 1/2 here have a shot at that.  And places that aren’t in a shadow in the northwest 1/3 might get a significant snow.  

Not everyone lives in a snow hole. Im very sympathetic to you. I’ve lived in shadow zones before. Pine Grove PA was one.  State College is actually a frustrating place if you like big storms.   Where I lived near Philly along the Delaware River was one.  Between the UHI and the near sea level elevation and there was often more snow in every direction. Get out of the Delaware valley on either side and snowfall went up.  I know how much it sucks. So I moved. 

I know not everyone can just move.  And I truly remember how frustrating it was living in a shadow zone and yours is likely worse.  But I also know your issues are local. A lot of those storms that failed in your yard were very good snows all around you. Your pessimism towards your yards situation is warranted but projecting that onto the whole region isn’t accurate.   

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46 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end 

Agree but as the storm is trending more progressive there is less and less lift on the back side after the low clears. That’s where the dry trend is coming from. The front still has a decent thump of precip but we lost the back half. 

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12z icon is a smidge stronger so it has the rain snow line north of the cities after some initial slop.  Will obviously be a nowcast thing where it sets up but this is much more fun to track than the Rainer that was on all guidance a few days ago.  Snow falling at anytime is a win for me at least.

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24 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said:

I'll be thinking of those of you who are enjoying the snow as I go down with ship and crash and burn here in the swamps of baltimore county.  It's so frickin close on the 12z NAM though.

Yea but like I feared it’s also one more slight bump weaker from being no significant snow anywhere. That 6”+ area keeps shrinking and is close to being completely gone of it deamplifies anymore. 

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