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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you’re right @psuhoffman about the weaker/drier trend. I’m also a bit worried about surface temps tomorrow afternoon and evening. 3k NAM is above freezing for almost everyone south of the M/D line even while it’s snowing. If it’s ripping, that will accumulate at 33-34, but light snow will mostly be white rain.

I’m honestly not trying to be a selfish dick. If there was a way for DC and my yard to get 6” I would be all for it. But the thermal profile is pretty marginal and if we keep deamplifying this thing it’s going to be white rain for everyone. 

I’m rooting for an amped solution and then I’ll pull for banding to cool the column enough to give the cities some love on the front and back side and maybe they can get a nice thump in.  That’s a better bet for everyone then rooting for this to become anymore progressive than it already is. 

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You guys are right this thing is drying out and the temps suck. 1-2" max

I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get.

But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get.

But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.

What you need to do is have your beautiful house relocated to the very top of the highest ridge in northern Carroll county. That way you can be bitter about being fringed. 

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

What you need to do is have your beautiful house relocated to the very top of the highest ridge in northern Carroll county. That way you can be bitter about being fringed. 

I will likely relocate somewhere in the next 5 years, and I wish I could move it, because I cant find anything I like as much when I browse homes online.

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I just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope and he said he's been wrong about the storm and it's going to be south and east. He mentioned that these flat waves are tricky and said that Philly to Boston is in the 6+ now, but said the wave looks really weak and he thinks most places are going to struggle to get 6. The map he drew looked like NW of Baltimore up through New England got 6+. He mentioned DC and said maybe a couple inches there. Said we have to watch the strength of the energy today as it comes ashore but he's not impressed and knows a lot of people will be disappointed.

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20 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said:

I'm as far east as you can possibly get in baltimore county.   Living on Sue Creek I know I'm screwed no matter what happens.  With that being said,  i'll be rooting for the folks that have put down roots north and west of the cities.  I hope you get crushed!

I will honor your sacrifice. Those about to snow salute you 

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10 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

What you need to do is have your beautiful house relocated to the very top of the highest ridge in northern Carroll county. That way you can be bitter about being fringed. 

Why you trying to drop things on top of my house!!!!  There is a 30 acre lot available about 300 yards down the ridge from me!!!  You should think about it @C.A.P.E.

Maybe the board should pitch in and buy the lot and turn it into a snow retreat for the weary urban snow weenies. 

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12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Start time of midday in March with temps in the 30s.  What could go wrong?

I'm sure this will be as much fun as yesterday's coastal.

You live in the worst snow shadow in our region. You would need everyone else to get 50” for you to have a shot. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF

looks like temps only drop to ~32 nw of the fall line and hover at 33-34 along 95. And that’s on the euro which is still more amplified.  So a weaker solution might be even warmer at the surface. Those temps only work during the day in March with rates.  Weak precip and that’s white rain. 

Yup. Going to be rate and elevation dependent. @jayyy could see a couple inches more than me only a few miles away. I actually think LWX’s current forecast is pretty good, but could be a sharper dividing line unless there is more widespread front or backend snow. At the height of the storm tomorrow evening there will be a brutal dividing line.

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This feels so much like those storms where Cantore heads to DC or Baltimore and stands there as white rain falls and everything behind him is wet and it's a total bust. 

I'd be totally fine letting the NW crew get hammered with 6-10/8-12 with this one. I'm big dog hunting anyway, and this is like a 3-6 at best here, and it's probably not even that given the temperatures, timing and intensity.

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