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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess but if we toss the euro (I know) and the gfs as the two outliers isn’t all the rest of the guidance within a 15-20 error of a big snow?  That’s not out of the question. 

I think we have had several surprises and last minute changes this year.  I feel pretty good about the odds for Sunday night.  And there's always the 9 day storm to look forward to...

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this is another setup with a closed upper low over canada.  not a great year as far as general flow is concerned, but cold is cold, right?  we're probably just used to seeking out a particular setup, which may raise more flags that needed.  surface temps leading in look ok per the gfs.  i think it's the upper levels that are not great.  dews may not be great without a nice high bleeding in, but close enough that we may still be in the game.  really need this track to be underneath, imo.  as is, it's probably an elevation event.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z euro is SE of the 12z by a little. Track is identical to the 12k NAM. Through NW SC across southeast VA and southern Delmarva. Need another 50-75 mile adjustment. But it trended the right way. 

i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this.  i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew.  we'll need a good track for this one.

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8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this.  i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew.  we'll need a good track for this one.

My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. 

You’ll get it.  I have faith in Manchester.  

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z euro is a beat down for HGR. It’s ~80-90% snow for my house.  Flips for about 2 hours then back to snow according to the hourly plots.  It starts as snow everywhere NW of 95 for a time. Looks a lot like the NAM now. At least it’s not the NW outlier anymore. 

Would you be able to share how much QPF is progged ? The wife and I have an early a.m. appointment in Morgantown on Monday, and were considering traveling up there late on Sunday.  The storm obviously affects that decision,

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. 

what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations.  kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations.  kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this.

At least you wont have to go far. Just up 270 to Frederick should do the trick.

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18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Would you be able to share how much QPF is progged ? The wife and I have an early a.m. appointment in Morgantown on Monday, and were considering traveling up there late on Sunday.  The storm obviously affects that decision,

Subtract this 

4EC4611A-6CBA-44A7-924D-1502BD3AA73D.thumb.png.1d6505543489b36614d6179a07fe9149.png

from this and you get an idea 

71F76711-1481-4302-8053-A048A880C0D0.thumb.png.effd804a3cadc789df5b1e7a48267f5c.png

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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

At least you wont have to go far. Just up 270 to Frederick should do the trick.

oh no doubt.  ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends.  there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key.  this has that vibe to it.  the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations.

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