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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


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Here's the NAMS epiclly marginal sounding for Frederick tomorrow night.  Most of the lift is above the warm layer, so we'd have fatties launching an air strike on the warm layer and no sun to reinforce it.  Probably switching back and forth on precip types.

cl5yMi3.png

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Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON still a hit

Sure is. I was actually attributing the lack of phasing as the possible cause for the other models running this further north than the ICON. However, the overall look at h5 is just flatter and de-amped vs the last few runs, so if that is the reason, it’s washed out by the weaker s/w.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what he was looking at.  I stayed quiet because I know better....unless I see a distinct trend, I'm not saying a thing.  But hey, we all have bad reads sometimes.

You can at least see the UL maps and figure out where that read could come from. But with a weaker low it just didn’t matter. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what he was looking at.  I stayed quiet because I know better....unless I see a distinct trend, I'm not saying a thing.  But hey, we all have bad reads sometimes.

Trusting those silly NE forum dudes.  The Southern wave was quite a bit flatter so it didn’t gain latitude even with higher heights along the east coast.

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