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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of my worst busts...probably only worst one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore.

Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there.

D-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

1286183133_VerifySplit.thumb.png.8b3afee5ab9199ad3098474af644236d.png

Thanks Ray. My map busted just as badly and I wrote some tail-between the legs emails to coworkers when the writing was on the wall Friday night.

It was a tough forecast, and maybe in retrospect it should not have been.

I think we (and essentially 100% of posters here Mets and hobbyists and water-vapor-watchers alike, and lots of TV forecasters, and NWS) were heavily influenced by guidance which across the board was a disaster. Literally everything from ensembles 2-3 days before to Euro (had warning eastern 1/3 of MA < 24 hours before onset) to mesos and short term hi-res models (Sat 9z HRRR was literally showing 0 snow north of Boston just 6 hours before there was 3" on the ground) had one of the worst performances I can remember. Complete blind dart board performance.

I acknowledged the warning flags with my forecast (buckshot diffuse vorticity, convection sliding east and robbing moisture influx, not much kink in flow), but the guidance seemed plausible and we've had cases when vorticity consolidates just right and a system amps more than progged.

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6 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks Ray. My map busted just as badly and I wrote some tail-between the legs emails to coworkers when the writing was on the wall Friday night.

It was a tough forecast, and maybe in retrospect it should not have been.

I think we (and essentially 100% of posters here Mets and hobbyists and water-vapor-watchers alike, and lots of TV forecasters, and NWS) were heavily influenced by guidance which across the board was a disaster. Literally everything from ensembles 2-3 days before to Euro (had warning eastern 1/3 of MA < 24 hours before onset) to mesos and short term hi-res models (Sat 9z HRRR was literally showing 0 snow north of Boston just 6 hours before there was 3" on the ground) had one of the worst performances I can remember. Complete blind dart board performance.

I acknowledged the warning flags with my forecast (buckshot diffuse vorticity, convection sliding east and robbing moisture influx, not much kink in flow), but the guidance seemed plausible and we've had cases when vorticity consolidates just right and a system amps more than progged.

It was not an easy forecast at all. We can often talk about some of the flags in hindsight but there were plenty of reasons it could have gone bigger too. We've seen systems where mesos struggle and the globals are able to better handle the system without getting confused by smaller vort maxes. Heck, even the euro had a very strong sig over E MA as late as 18z on Friday...not even 12 hours before the storm started. 

Its not easy to ignore that type of guidance. It's a lot easier to toss guidance when we're dealing with stuff like CAD, but when the Euro says we have to go decently big 12 hours before the storm, it's not easy when the mesos are skeptical. 

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

8” final. Missed the real meat as extreme sw areas saw 20”. Winds were light so no drifting issues.

Nice. You should cash in nicely with this upcoming storm also. Good luck!

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20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you weren't there you wouldn't bring it up 

Thank god im not there now....:lol:

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