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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Careful  :D

I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better...  

Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie?  you know -

My eyes never lie to me, never. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking.

Speak of the devil... 

James just saved the day! ahah

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Yeah I dunno. I was saying this would improve when everyone was jumping off the Tobin a couple days ago, but I am having a hard time jumping on the 8+ train anywhere but along the MA coast for something moving this quick. I have no qualms with Ryan's or BOX's maps.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

You sound like you are channeling Messenger-nice!

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking.

I mean I don't see a satellite based reason to toss the GFS yet. If I'm going to nitpick, it's probably a hair slow with the Dakotas kicker (which obviously could have large downstream impacts). 

That leading area of vorticity in the Carolinas that models have is interesting. Looping the regional radar and there is clearly a spin to the precip, so it's not some phony convectively created feature.

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Just now, TheSnowman said:

Woah Woaj Woah...  

I’m reading through the NWS point and click and am getting Firious with my 2-4 forecast..... 

.....then I read down....  

 

“1-2 Sunday, 4-8 Sunday Night”  WHAT!?!?  That storm is FAR bigger now?  Thought that one was blah and rain?  

 

You in LA?

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